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The Real Reason Why US Oil Production Has Peaked

The Real Reason Why US Oil Production Has Peaked

One of the basic assumptions or “Paradigms” that is keeping a lid on the price of oil is the belief that U.S. oil production will continue going up year­-after-year. This paradigm is second only to the fear that the tariff war between the U.S. and China will go on for years, causing a global recession. FEAR has caused oil prices to fall back into the mid-$50s, not supply / demand fundamentals. It is important that energy sector investors know what’s going on in the real world because $55 oil is not a sustainable price for the world’s most important commodity.

In the real world, upstream oil & gas companies are slashing drilling & completion budgets and the active rig count is falling week after week. Today we aren’t completing enough new wells to offset the accelerating decline rate of existing wells.

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Raymond James recently estimated that over the last three years the U.S. decline rate for oil has doubled from 1.6 to 3.2 million barrels per day. The drilled but uncompleted well inventory (“DUC”) is back to normal, so the number of wells being drilled and the number of wells being completed is now about the same. We need over 12,000 new horizontal oil wells completed each year to hold production flat and the number of completed wells will need to go up each year.

What happens if U.S. oil production stalls or goes on decline?

This is a big question because U.S. production growth has been close to 90% of global oil supply growth over the last three years. If U.S. oil production has peaked, then global supplies will have trouble keeping up with demand growth. Global demand for products refined from crude oil goes up 1.0 to 1.5 million barrels per day year-after year. The only annual decline in demand for oil happened in 2008-2009 thanks to the Great Recession and demand quickly rebounded back to the long-term trend line in 2010. I don’t think Trump’s tariff war with China will cause another Great Recession.Related: U.S. To “Drown The World” In Oil

Let me pause here and say that I believe there is more upside for U.S. oil production. It just isn’t going to happen unless the price of oil goes a lot higher than it is today.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) forecast at the beginning of this year was that the U.S. shale oil plays were just getting started and that production would increase by at least 2 million barrels of oil per day (“MMBOPD”) each year for several more years.

Thanks to the Great Recession, U.S. oil production dipped briefly below 4.0 MMBOPD in September 2008 but rebounded to over 5.3 MMBOPD within six months. The “Shale Revolution” started around 2010; saving the U.S. oil & gas industry. Jumping forward, U.S. crude oil production increased 2.4 MMBOPD from 9.7 MMBOPD in December 2017 to 12.1 MMBOPD in December 2018. EIA’s projection that oil production would go up at least 2.0 MMBOPD this year seemed reasonable back in January, but shale oil production has definitely hit a wall.

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The chart above is taken directly from the EIA website. Note that after a 539,000 barrel per day surge in U.S. oil production from September to December of 2018 U.S. production declined in the first quarter of this year. After a nice increase in April, production pulled back again slightly in May. May is the last month for which we have actual production data.Related: Hong Kong Billionaire Loses $20 Billion In Canadian Oil Sands

The EIA appears to have figured this out, but the International Energy Agency (“IEA”) based in France is still telling the world that the U.S. can keep the world well supplied with cheap oil.

EIA’s weekly oil supply estimates are just “guesses” based on their formulas. They don’t have measuring devices on the more than a million oil wells producing in the U.S. Since the end of May (area highlighted in yellow in the chart below) EIA has been reporting that U.S. oil production has been flat. The big dip in mid-July was caused by Hurricane Berry.

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(Click to enlarge)

My conclusion is that upstream companies in the U.S. are not completing enough new wells to offset the increasing decline rate. My “guess” is that U.S. oil production peaked sometime in April or May. If this is confirmed by a few more months of actual production data provided by state agencies on a 90-day lag, I think there may be a big “Paradigm Shift” that causes a lot of investors to add more energy to their portfolios.

I follow close to 100 upstream oil & gas companies. I’ve never seen the market sentiment toward the sub-sector so negative. Dozens of profitable oil companies that I follow are trading at single digit PE ratios and multiples of cash flow from operations that I never dreamed possible. This world runs on oil and there is nothing that is going to change that anytime soon. That is the real world we live in.

By Dan Steffens for Oilprice.com

Read it from OilPrice.com – Picture as posted on Oil Price

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PIPE EXCHANGE PRIVACY POLICY

Last Updated: August 2019

 

Pipe Exchange LLC (“Pipe Exchange,” “we,” “us,” and “our”) respects your privacy. This privacy policy (this “Privacy Policy”) explains the accepted privacy practices for our online service and product listings (collectively, the “Services”) found via our website at https://pipexch.com/ (the “Website”). It describes the ways in which your personal information is collected and used, and the rights and options available to you with respect to such information.

 

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How We Store Your Information

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PIPE EXCHANGE TERMS OF USE

Last updated: August 2019

Welcome to https://pipexch.com/Pipe Exchange (the “Website”). The Website is owned and operated by Pipe Exchange LLCPipe ExchangePipe Exchange including its related companies, affiliates and subsidiaries (collectively “Pipe Exchange,” “we,” “us,” “our”). We make the Website available to you, subject to the following Terms of Use (these “Terms of Use”). PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING TERMS OF USE CAREFULLY BEFORE USING THE WEBSITE. By using the Website, you agree to these Terms of Use and agree they create a legally binding agreement between you and Pipe Exchange. If you do not agree to these Terms of Use, you may not use the Website. These Terms of Use are effective unless and until terminated by Pipe Exchange.

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CHANGES TO TERMS OF USE

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In the course of your use of the Website, you may be asked to provide certain personalized information to us (such information referred to hereinafter as “User Information”).  Our information collection and use policies with respect to the privacy of such User Information are set forth in the Website’s Privacy Policy which is incorporated herein by reference for all purposes.  You acknowledge and agree that you are solely responsible for the accuracy and content of User Information, and you agree to keep it up to date. 

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Some of the information and material available through the Website are provided to Pipe Exchange by third parties (“Third-Party Material”). In some instances, the source of the Third-Party Material is identified. Third-Party Material is provided for your convenience only and Pipe Exchange does not endorse these materials or the parties who supply them to us. Pipe Exchange does not warrant or represent that these Third-Party Materials are current, accurate or reliable.

COPYRIGHT AGENT

We respect the intellectual property rights of others, and require that the people who use the Website do the same.  If you believe that your work has been copied in a way that constitutes copyright infringement, please forward the following information to Pipe Exchange’s Copyright Agent, designated as such pursuant to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, 17 U.S.C. § 512(c)(2), named below:

  • Your address, telephone number, and email address;
  • A description of the copyrighted work that you claim has been infringed;
  • A description of where the alleged infringing material is located;
  • A statement by you that you have a good faith belief that the disputed use is not authorized by the copyright owner, its agent, or the law;
  • An electronic or physical signature of the person authorized to act on behalf of the owner of the copyright interest; and
  • A statement by you, made under penalty of perjury, that the above information in your Notice is accurate and that you are the copyright owner or authorized to act on the copyright owner’s behalf.
  • For all email submissions please include the subject line: DMCA Takedown Request.

 

Pipe Exchange has adopted a policy of terminating, in appropriate circumstances, accounts of users of the services or the Website who are deemed to have repeatedly uploaded content that infringes the intellectual property rights of others.

 

Copyright Agent:

Pipe Exchange Legal

c/o Pipe Exchange LLC

14025 West Road.
Suite #100
Houston, TX 77041

Phone: + (713) 934-9480

Email: dmca@pipexch.com

DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES

THE WEBSITE AND ITS CONTENT ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE” BASIS, WITHOUT REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND WHATSOEVER. PIPE EXCHANGE, TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING THE WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY, NON-INFRINGEMENT OF THIRD PARTIES RIGHTS, AND THE WARRANTY OF FITNESS FOR PARTICULAR PURPOSE. PIPE EXCHANGE MAKES NO WARRANTIES ABOUT THE ACCURACY, RELIABILITY, COMPLETENESS, OR TIMELINESS OF THE MATERIAL, SERVICES, SOFTWARE, TEXT, GRAPHICS, AND LINKS FOUND OR CONTAINED ON THE WEBSITE. PIPE EXCHANGE DOES NOT WARRANT THAT THE WEBSITE, THE CONTENT, OR ITS SERVERS ARE FREE OF VIRUSES OR OTHER HARMFUL COMPONENTS. YOU UNDERSTAND AND AGREE THAT YOU OBTAIN MATERIAL THROUGH THE USE OF THE WEBSITE AT YOUR OWN DISCRETION AND RISK AND THAT YOU WILL BE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DAMAGES TO YOUR COMPUTER SYSTEM OR LOSS OF DATA THAT RESULTS.

ALL MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THE WEBSITE IS FOR GENERAL INFORMATION ONLY, HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED, HAS NOT BEEN RECOMMENDED BY ANY FEDERAL OR STATE REGULATORY AUTHORITY AND MAY CONTAIN ERRORS OR OMISSIONS OF MATERIAL INFORMATION. THE MATERIAL AND INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THE WEBSITE SHOULD NOT, THEREFORE, BE USED OR RELIED UPON FOR ANY SPECIFIC REASON OR APPLICATION WITHOUT INDEPENDENT COMPETENT PROFESSIONAL EXAMINATION AND VERIFICATION OF ITS ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, SUITABILITY AND APPLICABILITY. ANYONE MAKING USE OF THE MATERIAL DOES SO AT HIS/HER/ITS OWN SOLE AND EXCLUSIVE RISK AND ASSUMES ANY AND ALL ACTUAL OR POTENTIAL DAMAGE OR LIABILITY RESULTING FROM SUCH USE.

LIMITATION OF LIABILITY

IN NO EVENT SHALL PIPE EXCHANGE BE LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES WHATSOEVER (INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES, LOST PROFITS, OR DAMAGES RESULTING FROM LOST DATA OR BUSINESS INTERRUPTION) RESULTING FROM THE USE OR INABILITY TO USE MATERIAL ON THE WEBSITE OR SITES LINKED TO THE WEBSITE, WHETHER BASED ON WARRANTY, CONTRACT, TORT, OR ANY OTHER LEGAL THEORY, AND WHETHER OR NOT PIPE EXCHANGE IS ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.

TERMINATION

Pipe Exchange may terminate, change, suspend or discontinue any aspect of the Website or the Website’s services at any time.  Pipe Exchange may restrict, suspend or terminate your access to the Website and/or its services if we believe you are in breach of our terms and conditions or applicable law, or for any other reason without notice or liability.  Pipe Exchange maintains a policy that provides for the termination in appropriate circumstances of the Website use privileges of users who are repeat infringers of intellectual property rights.

USER’S REMEDY

If you are dissatisfied with any portion of the Website or with any of these Terms of Use, your sole and exclusive remedy is to discontinue using the Website.

GOVERNING LAW AND VENUE

These Terms of Use and the relationship between you and Pipe Exchange shall be governed by the laws of the United States and the State of Florida without regard to its conflict of law provisions. You hereby irrevocably submit and consent to the personal and exclusive jurisdiction of the courts located within Miami-Dade County, Florida and agree that any cause of action that may arise under these Terms of Use and all disputes arising out of or relating to the use of the Website shall be commenced and be heard in the appropriate court in Miami-Dade County, Florida. The failure of Pipe Exchange to exercise or enforce any right or provision of these Terms of Use shall not constitute a waiver of such right or provision. If any provision of these Terms of Use is found by a court of competent jurisdiction to be invalid, the parties nevertheless agree that the court should endeavor to give effect to the parties’ intentions as reflected in the provision, and the other provisions of these Terms of Use remain in full force and effect. 

QUESTIONS ABOUT TERMS OF USE

If you have any questions regarding these Terms of Use, please either:

Send an email to sales@pipexch.com

Write to Pipe Exchange at the following address:

14025 West Road

Suite 100

Houston, TX 77041