Rystad Energy: Cost of new upstream oil projects rises further

Rystad Energy: Cost of new upstream oil projects rises further

The cost of developing new upstream oil projects is continuing to rise as inflationary pressure and supply chain woes endure.

The cost of developing new upstream oil projects is continuing to rise as inflationary pressure and supply chain woes endure, according to new research from Rystad Energy. The research shows that the average breakeven cost of a non-OPEC oil project grew to $47/bbl of Brent crude, a 5% increase over the past year alone. Nevertheless, breakeven costs remain below current oil prices.

Offshore deepwater and tight oil projects continue to be the most economical new supply sources, while oil sands remain the priciest option. By analyzing breakeven costs, Rystad Energy estimates how much crude oil will be delivered in the future based on the economic viability of different supply sources.

“The new research suggests that despite rising costs, more supply is likely in 2030, driven mainly by production from OPEC countries, where costs are low, and the resource potential is high,” said Rystad Energy. The new equilibrium oil price for 105 million b/d of demand in 2030 is around $55/bbl, the company estimates.

The research includes a global cost-of-supply analysis for remaining liquids resources, split into producing and not-yet-producing fields. The not-yet-producing fields are further divided into different supply segment groups.

The report found that onshore Middle East is the cheapest source of new production, with an average breakeven price of just $27/bbl. This segment also boasts one of the most significant resource potentials. Offshore shelf is the next cheapest at $37/bbl, followed by offshore deepwater at $43/bbl and North American shale at $45/bbl. Conversely, oil sands production breakevens average $57/bbl, but can go as high as about $75/bbl.

“Rising breakeven prices reflect the increasing cost pressures on the upstream industry. This challenges the economic feasibility of some new projects, but certain segments, including offshore and tight oil, continue to offer competitive costs, ensuring supply can still be brought online to meet future demand. Managing these cost increases will be critical to sustaining long-term production growth,” said Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research at Rystad Energy.

From 2014 to 2020, tight oil and OPEC were the clear winners, as both segments saw a reduction in the breakeven price and an increase in potential volumes, according to Rystad. Since 2020, the potential supply from tight oil has been reduced, and Rystad now expects tight oil to produce around 22 million b/d by 2030, including natural gas liquids (NGL). The reduction in future tight oil supply is caused by the change in company strategy, with more cash paid out to investors and amid industry consolidation.

Between 2014 and 2020, the offshore shelf and deepwater sectors experienced a cost reduction of around 35%. However, the lack of new sanctioning activity over the period reduced the potential 2030 offshore liquids supply. Compared with 2022, breakeven prices for the deepwater and offshore shelf segments are rising due to higher unit prices. Oil sands, however, continue to see a reduction due primarily to the lower observed operational costs for this heavy oil segment, Rystad said. 

Beyond breakevens, average payback for new projects, internal rate of return (IRR) and carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity are vital metrics for evaluating new oil development economics. The tight oil sector’s payback time is just 2 years, assuming an average oil price of $70/bbl, illustrating how quickly operators are recovering their investments, Rystad said. Payback time is closer to 10 years or more for the other supply segments. Tight oil also leads the pack in terms of IRR, with an estimated IRR of around 35% in the same average oil price scenario. Conversely, oil sands, the most expensive supply source, has the lowest IRR of about 12%, according to Rystad research. 

Over the last 3 years, the average CO2 intensity for tight oil has been 14 kg/boe, while deepwater has a slightly higher average CO2 intensity of 15 kg/boe. The oil sands sector holds the highest future estimated emissions at around 70 kg/boe, according to Rystad Energy.

Oil & Gas Journal

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PIPE EXCHANGE PRIVACY POLICY

Last Updated: August 2019

 

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How We Store Your Information

Data Security

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Under California Civil Code Sections 1798.83-1798.84, California residents are entitled to ask us for a notice identifying the categories of personal information which we share with our affiliates and/or third parties for marketing purposes, and providing contact information for such affiliates and/or third parties.  If you are a California resident and would like a copy of this notice, please submit a written request to: privacy@pipexch.com

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Changes to this Privacy Policy

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PIPE EXCHANGE TERMS OF USE

Last updated: August 2019

Welcome to https://pipexch.com/Pipe Exchange (the “Website”). The Website is owned and operated by Pipe Exchange LLCPipe ExchangePipe Exchange including its related companies, affiliates and subsidiaries (collectively “Pipe Exchange,” “we,” “us,” “our”). We make the Website available to you, subject to the following Terms of Use (these “Terms of Use”). PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING TERMS OF USE CAREFULLY BEFORE USING THE WEBSITE. By using the Website, you agree to these Terms of Use and agree they create a legally binding agreement between you and Pipe Exchange. If you do not agree to these Terms of Use, you may not use the Website. These Terms of Use are effective unless and until terminated by Pipe Exchange.

Minors are not authorized to access or use the Website for any purpose.

CHANGES TO TERMS OF USE

Pipe Exchange reserves the right, at any time, to modify, amend, alter or update these Terms of Use. These changes will be effective as of the date we post the revised version. By continuing to use the Website following such modifications, amendments, alterations or updates, you agree to be bound by such modifications, amendments, alterations or updates. Therefore, you should periodically visit this page to review our most current Terms of Use.

You may access the current version of these Terms of Use at any time by clicking on the link marked “Terms of Use” at the bottom of each page of the Website.

PRIVACY POLICY

In the course of your use of the Website, you may be asked to provide certain personalized information to us (such information referred to hereinafter as “User Information”).  Our information collection and use policies with respect to the privacy of such User Information are set forth in the Website’s Privacy Policy which is incorporated herein by reference for all purposes.  You acknowledge and agree that you are solely responsible for the accuracy and content of User Information, and you agree to keep it up to date. 

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS

Pipe Exchange respects the intellectual property rights of others. As between you and Pipe Exchange, and except any User Information which you provide, all rights, title and interests in the Website, including all the content (including, for example, audio, photographs, illustrations, graphics, other visuals, video, copy, software, etc.), code, data and materials thereon, the look and feel, design and organization of the Website, and the compilation of the content, code, data and materials on the Website, including but not limited to any copyrights, trademark rights, patent rights, database rights, moral rights, sui generis rights and other intellectual property and proprietary rights therein (collectively the “Content”) are owned by Pipe Exchange or by third parties who have licensed or provided their Content to us. The Website is protected under Trademarks (as defined below), copyright, patent, trade secret and other intellectual property rights laws, and your use of the Website does not grant to you ownership of any Content you may access on the Website. You are prohibited from using the Website to infringe or violate any intellectual property rights. Pipe Exchange may terminate your right to access the Website if it believes you are using the Website in a manner that infringes the copyright, trademark, patent or other intellectual property rights of another.

We may investigate occurrences that may involve violations of the security of the Services or of the law and we may involve, and cooperate with, law enforcement authorities in prosecuting users who are involved in such violations.

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The Website and the Content are intended for your personal use.  You may access and view the content on the Website via your computer or other internet compatible device, and make single copies or prints of the content on the Website for your personal, internal use only.   The Website and the services offered on or through the Website, including Pipe Exchange’s e-publication and any other content and materials thereon, are only for your personal, non-commercial use. Except as otherwise provided on the Website, you may not modify, copy, distribute, transmit, display, perform, reproduce, publish, license, sell, create derivative works from, transfer, or sell any information, software, products or services obtained from the Website. Use of the Website to sell a product or service, or to increase traffic to your website for commercial reasons, such as advertising sales is expressly forbidden.

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SECURITY

You are prohibited from violating, or attempting to violate the security of the Website. Any such violations may result in criminal and civil liabilities to you.  You warrant and agree that, while using the Website and the various services and features offered on or through the Website, you shall not: (a) impersonate any person or entity or misrepresent your affiliation with any other person or entity; (b) insert your own or a third party’s advertising, branding or other promotional content into any of the Website’s content, materials or services, or use, redistribute, republish or exploit such content or service for any further commercial or promotional purposes or take any action that would constitute or could be interpreted as an endorsement or sponsorship by Pipe Exchange of any third party site, content, information or other materials, or in any manner that would violate the terms and conditions of any such third party sites; (c) attempt to probe, scan, or test the vulnerability of any system or network; or (d) attempt to gain unauthorized access to data not intended for you and/or other computer systems through the Website.  You shall not: (i) engage in spidering, “screen scraping,” “database scraping,” harvesting of e-mail addresses, wireless addresses or other contact or personal information, or any other automatic means of accessing, logging-in or registering on the Website or for any services or features offered on or through the Website, or obtaining lists of users or obtaining or accessing other information or features on, from or through the Website or the services offered on or through the Website, including, without limitation, any information residing on any server or database connected to the Website or any services offered on or through the Website; (ii) obtain or attempt to obtain unauthorized access to computer systems, materials, information or any services made available on or through the Website through any means; (iii) use the Website or the services made available on or through the Website in any manner with the intent to interrupt, damage, disable, overburden, or impair the Website or such services, including, without limitation, sending mass unsolicited messages or “flooding,” “spamming,” or “crashing” any systems; (iv) use the Website or the Website’s services or features in violation of Pipe Exchange’s or any third party’s intellectual property or other proprietary or legal rights; or (v) use the Website or the Website’s services in violation of any applicable law.  You further agree that you may not attempt (or encourage or support anyone else’s attempt) to circumvent, reverse engineer, decrypt, or otherwise alter or interfere with the Website or the Website’s services, or any content thereof, or make unauthorized use thereof.  You agree that you will not use the Website in any manner that could damage, disable, overburden, or impair the Website or interfere with any other party’s use and enjoyment of the Website. You may not obtain or attempt to obtain any materials or information through any means not intentionally made publicly available or provided for through the Website. Pipe Exchange will investigate any alleged violations and will cooperate with law enforcement agencies in their investigations.

THIRD-PARTY CONTENT

Some of the information and material available through the Website are provided to Pipe Exchange by third parties (“Third-Party Material”). In some instances, the source of the Third-Party Material is identified. Third-Party Material is provided for your convenience only and Pipe Exchange does not endorse these materials or the parties who supply them to us. Pipe Exchange does not warrant or represent that these Third-Party Materials are current, accurate or reliable.

COPYRIGHT AGENT

We respect the intellectual property rights of others, and require that the people who use the Website do the same.  If you believe that your work has been copied in a way that constitutes copyright infringement, please forward the following information to Pipe Exchange’s Copyright Agent, designated as such pursuant to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, 17 U.S.C. § 512(c)(2), named below:

  • Your address, telephone number, and email address;
  • A description of the copyrighted work that you claim has been infringed;
  • A description of where the alleged infringing material is located;
  • A statement by you that you have a good faith belief that the disputed use is not authorized by the copyright owner, its agent, or the law;
  • An electronic or physical signature of the person authorized to act on behalf of the owner of the copyright interest; and
  • A statement by you, made under penalty of perjury, that the above information in your Notice is accurate and that you are the copyright owner or authorized to act on the copyright owner’s behalf.
  • For all email submissions please include the subject line: DMCA Takedown Request.

 

Pipe Exchange has adopted a policy of terminating, in appropriate circumstances, accounts of users of the services or the Website who are deemed to have repeatedly uploaded content that infringes the intellectual property rights of others.

 

Copyright Agent:

Pipe Exchange Legal

c/o Pipe Exchange LLC

14025 West Road.
Suite #100
Houston, TX 77041

Phone: + (713) 934-9480

Email: dmca@pipexch.com

DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES

THE WEBSITE AND ITS CONTENT ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE” BASIS, WITHOUT REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND WHATSOEVER. PIPE EXCHANGE, TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING THE WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY, NON-INFRINGEMENT OF THIRD PARTIES RIGHTS, AND THE WARRANTY OF FITNESS FOR PARTICULAR PURPOSE. PIPE EXCHANGE MAKES NO WARRANTIES ABOUT THE ACCURACY, RELIABILITY, COMPLETENESS, OR TIMELINESS OF THE MATERIAL, SERVICES, SOFTWARE, TEXT, GRAPHICS, AND LINKS FOUND OR CONTAINED ON THE WEBSITE. PIPE EXCHANGE DOES NOT WARRANT THAT THE WEBSITE, THE CONTENT, OR ITS SERVERS ARE FREE OF VIRUSES OR OTHER HARMFUL COMPONENTS. YOU UNDERSTAND AND AGREE THAT YOU OBTAIN MATERIAL THROUGH THE USE OF THE WEBSITE AT YOUR OWN DISCRETION AND RISK AND THAT YOU WILL BE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DAMAGES TO YOUR COMPUTER SYSTEM OR LOSS OF DATA THAT RESULTS.

ALL MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THE WEBSITE IS FOR GENERAL INFORMATION ONLY, HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED, HAS NOT BEEN RECOMMENDED BY ANY FEDERAL OR STATE REGULATORY AUTHORITY AND MAY CONTAIN ERRORS OR OMISSIONS OF MATERIAL INFORMATION. THE MATERIAL AND INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THE WEBSITE SHOULD NOT, THEREFORE, BE USED OR RELIED UPON FOR ANY SPECIFIC REASON OR APPLICATION WITHOUT INDEPENDENT COMPETENT PROFESSIONAL EXAMINATION AND VERIFICATION OF ITS ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, SUITABILITY AND APPLICABILITY. ANYONE MAKING USE OF THE MATERIAL DOES SO AT HIS/HER/ITS OWN SOLE AND EXCLUSIVE RISK AND ASSUMES ANY AND ALL ACTUAL OR POTENTIAL DAMAGE OR LIABILITY RESULTING FROM SUCH USE.

LIMITATION OF LIABILITY

IN NO EVENT SHALL PIPE EXCHANGE BE LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES WHATSOEVER (INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES, LOST PROFITS, OR DAMAGES RESULTING FROM LOST DATA OR BUSINESS INTERRUPTION) RESULTING FROM THE USE OR INABILITY TO USE MATERIAL ON THE WEBSITE OR SITES LINKED TO THE WEBSITE, WHETHER BASED ON WARRANTY, CONTRACT, TORT, OR ANY OTHER LEGAL THEORY, AND WHETHER OR NOT PIPE EXCHANGE IS ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.

TERMINATION

Pipe Exchange may terminate, change, suspend or discontinue any aspect of the Website or the Website’s services at any time.  Pipe Exchange may restrict, suspend or terminate your access to the Website and/or its services if we believe you are in breach of our terms and conditions or applicable law, or for any other reason without notice or liability.  Pipe Exchange maintains a policy that provides for the termination in appropriate circumstances of the Website use privileges of users who are repeat infringers of intellectual property rights.

USER’S REMEDY

If you are dissatisfied with any portion of the Website or with any of these Terms of Use, your sole and exclusive remedy is to discontinue using the Website.

GOVERNING LAW AND VENUE

These Terms of Use and the relationship between you and Pipe Exchange shall be governed by the laws of the United States and the State of Florida without regard to its conflict of law provisions. You hereby irrevocably submit and consent to the personal and exclusive jurisdiction of the courts located within Miami-Dade County, Florida and agree that any cause of action that may arise under these Terms of Use and all disputes arising out of or relating to the use of the Website shall be commenced and be heard in the appropriate court in Miami-Dade County, Florida. The failure of Pipe Exchange to exercise or enforce any right or provision of these Terms of Use shall not constitute a waiver of such right or provision. If any provision of these Terms of Use is found by a court of competent jurisdiction to be invalid, the parties nevertheless agree that the court should endeavor to give effect to the parties’ intentions as reflected in the provision, and the other provisions of these Terms of Use remain in full force and effect. 

QUESTIONS ABOUT TERMS OF USE

If you have any questions regarding these Terms of Use, please either:

Send an email to sales@pipexch.com

Write to Pipe Exchange at the following address:

14025 West Road

Suite 100

Houston, TX 77041