A wave of Ukrainian attacks has pushed Russian refining runs to the lowest in more than 21 years, deepening a domestic fuel crunch and further squeezing the global market.
Crude-processing rates have averaged 3.91 million barrels a day so far this month, the lowest level since March 2005, according to figures compiled by EA Analytics. That’s more than 1.4 million barrels a day below the year-ago average, the data show.
The drop in production has prompted a ban on most diesel exports to the end of July, in addition to restrictions on gasoline and jet fuel shipments introduced earlier. The loss of diesel from a key global supplier has driven prices to multiyear highs, with the market already tightened by disruptions to Middle East flows.
Russia has classified its official statistics on refinery operations, making independent assessments of damage to the industry challenging. The Energy Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.
EA Analytics, a division of consulting firm Energy Aspects Ltd., estimates refinery runs by monitoring the entire crude supply chain, from satellite tracking of oil fields and storage tanks to real-time cargo flows.
In the past 100 days, Ukrainian forces have carried out about 50 attacks on Russia’s fuel-producing facilities, hitting at least 24 out of 34 large refineries, mostly linked to the nation’s major oil producers, according to a Bloomberg tally of public statements from both countries.
“A blistering wave of Ukrainian attacks” has affected more than half of Russia’s refining capacity since the start of May, the International Energy Agency said in a report on Friday. The Paris-based agency estimates Russian plants processed 3.8 million barrels a day in June, 1.6 million barrels a day lower than a year earlier.
Kyiv has intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in an effort to bring the Kremlin to the negotiating table. Its drones can now reach more than 1,500 miles from the Ukrainian border, this month striking Russia’s largest oil refinery in Omsk region.
The attack on the Omsk facility, which mainly serves the domestic market, put further pressure on supplies to Russian consumers. Multiple regions across the country — from Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea to Russia’s Pacific Coast — are reporting disruption to supply, with hours-long lines at filling stations and rocketing pump prices.
“There are problems and shortages, which is why we see queues or sometimes gas stations don’t work stably,” Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told local media last week. Novak, who oversees Russia’s energy industry, has been holding meetings on the domestic fuel market almost on a daily basis.
To ease panic-buying, some regions have introduced a temporary rationing system based on vehicle license plates. Authorities in the Novosibirsk region have recommended companies reintroduce remote working to reduce fuel consumption.
Some Russians have also taken matters in their own hands: Last month, there were more than 17,000 searches for “how to make gasoline” in Russian search engine Yandex, the Bell reported, citing Yandex Wordstat. That’s the highest since the Kremlin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
