(by Paul Vivian and Rick Preckel, www.prestonpipe.com) Market Monitor: Shipments of line pipe by diameter group are moving in opposite directions in the second half so far with large diameter shipments growing and smaller diameter shipments averaging about 35k tons per month less so far in 2H18 than in 1H18. As we noted last month the future project list is growing so the uptick in large OD shipments is no surprise particularly when combined with the large amount of news regarding takeaway capacity constraints.
We are projecting final 2018 volume of 4.4 million tons with growth to 4.6 million tons in 2019 on strong project shipments. As we’ve noted in the past, with more gathering systems showing up as projects and more liquids lines, we expect strong shipments in both size categories. We have continued to see imports capture project business so our forecast suggests that import rates remain more or less on par with 2018. Import Supply – September imports were 142,636 tons. This is followed by a solid license month in October of 170,294 tons. The November projection with 9 0f 21 days reporting is 244,924 tons. Often the holiday months are front loaded so we need to take caution and wait and see. Given our forecast, however, this would not be surprising if it proves out. The top item for the month of September is Carbon ERW over 4 ½” not over 16”, at 22,154 tons. The landed price was $944/ton. This HTS code accounted for 471,786 tons so far YTD.
