(by Paul Vivian and Rick Preckel, www.prestonpipe.com) Market Monitor – According to an NPR article, federal officials released a draft environmental review of the Dakota Access oil pipeline on September 8. The review was ordered by a federal judge after revoking the permit for the Missouri River crossing. The draft details five options for the pipeline, including denying the easement for the crossing, approving the easement with measures for “increased operational safety,” or grant the same easement with no changes. A fifth option is a 111-mile reroute which would require new permits from federal, state and local authorities and regulators. The final decision will be made after an analysis of public comments; the period for which ends November 13th. The pipeline has continued to operate since the revocation of the original permit. Summit Preview – Preston Pipe’s OCTG and Line Pipe Forecasting Summit is October 5, 2023. This industry conference is unique in that we bring together upstream and midstream experts along with authorities on the topics of trade, steel, and emerging sources of demand including hydrogen and carbon capture, to provide the latest information and analysis on market drivers and key inputs that will affect demand for OCTG and Line Pipe in the coming 3 years. Preston then takes that information and creates and presents its three-year forecast for OCTG and Line Pipe demand, source of supply split, and pricing. This year on the midstream side we have Uday Turaga from ADI Analytics who is going to provide a production growth/takeaway capacity analysis by basin along with an update on LNG projects. Preston will present its latest from its upstream model while Robert DeFrancesco III from Wiley Rein and the team from World Steel Dynamics will present on trade and steel respectively. Both those topics are on the move once again as the Biden administration works with global partners and steel is being influenced by new capacity additions, an autoworkers strike, and economic challenges in China. Import Supply – July line pipe imports totaled 89,150 tons missing the license tally reported last month by around 4,500 tons. August 2023 import licenses fell from the linear estimate to 95,217 tons. The September linear forecast, 11 of 21 days summed, is up again at 118,606 tons. The top line pipe import item for July was CARBON ERW, OVER 4 ½” OD, NOT OVER 16” OD, at 30,160 tons at a price of $991/ton; down $186/ton over the last two months.
Preston Pipe Report – September 2023
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