(by Paul Vivian and Rick Preckel, www.prestonpipe.com) Market Monitor – Navigator CO2 Ventures has cancelled its Heartland Greenway pipeline project aimed at capturing 15 million metric tonnes of carbon annually from ethanol production facilities in the Midwest. The 1,300 mile long pipeline project has had a number of permitting setbacks the most recent was when a South Dakota permit was denied in September. Navigator cited ‘unpredictable’ state regulatory processes as the reason for the cancellation. The Summit Carbon Solutions project pushed back its operations start date by two years, to 2026, citing regulatory hurdles and environmental and landowner opposition. Meanwhile, a dozen Democratic members of Congress said, in a letter to President Biden, that no permits should be issued for CO2 pipelines until federal safety regulations are finished. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration
(PHMSA) is working on new safety regulations for carbon pipelines that it has said will be proposed in 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a
key element of Biden’s climate agenda, but landowners along the routes of major CCS pipeline projects proposed in the Midwest are refusing to sign over land to build the pipelines in part due to safety concerns. Forecast preview – LNG export facility construction is currently a swing driver for line pipe demand.
The US LNG market is benefitting from the rerouting of energy supplies that followed Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. US LNG export capacity is poised to grow by ~50% over the next two years, with the US commissioning more than 5 Bcf/d by EOY 2025. Outside of LNG, pipeline projects are driven by takeaway capacity constraints and oil and gas gathering needs resulting from upstream activity. In our forecast, we will capture line pipe demand for these applications
and will highlight some projects expected to ship pipe in the forecast period. Import Supply – August line pipe imports totaled 98,838 tons, exceeding the license tally reported last month by around 3,500 tons. September 2023 import licenses fell from the linear estimate to 94,676 tons. The October linear forecast, 11 of 22 days summed, is up again at 110,975 tons. The top line pipe import item for August was CARBON ERW, OVER 4 ½” OD, NOT OVER 16” OD, at 46,243 tons at a price of $1,106/ton, up $115/ton over last month.
