(by Paul Vivian and Rick Preckel, www.prestonpipe.com) Market Monitor – At our ninth annual Forecast Summit, two upstream experts presented drilling forecasts for 2026, those thoughts are summarized in the OCTG section of this Report. Based on the stronger of those forecasts for 2026, we estimate that demand for small diameter line pipe will be approximately 976k tons as compared to projected shipments in 2025 of 1,196k tons. While there are fewer wells that are likely to be drilled in 2026, part of the differential between the years is that preparations for the reset of the S232 tariffs in 2025 resulted in inventory build of small diameter line pipe. Another speaker expert provided a presentation on midstream activity based on the supply demand balance by basin. That said, the attitude in the midstream sector today is that if a project is justified, get it decided on and built as quickly as possible. This has led to significant project announcements throughout 2025 that are likely to ship pipe in 2026 and beyond. Our large diameter forecast for 2026 is 1.645m tons as compared to a project 1.553m tons in 2025. Timing can play a big role in annual volumes in this sector. Import Supply – September import licenses totaled 108,446 which was about 20,000 tons higher than our estimate likely due to high large OD volumes. October import licenses totaled 63,403 tons. With licenses tallied through the 17th, the linear forecast suggests 210,000 tons for the month. This is almost certainly high as November also has a large quantitiy of large diameter licenses so far. The monthly average import level through August was 112,000 tons. While the government has reopened, data is yet to catch up. Next month’s report will likely contain September and October final data, although release dates for that information have not yet been announced.
Preston Pipe Report – November 2025
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