(by Paul Vivian and Rick Preckel, www.prestonpipe.com) Market Monitor – Despite the fact that we expect drilling to be a bit better in 2025, our forecast for <=16” OD line pipe is for a slight decline from a projection of 1.1 million tons in 2024 to about 1.04 million tons in 2025. This is largely due to slightly weaker demand in applications that are not directly related to drilling. On the >16” diameter front, the mix of projects that are in the hopper should generate similar, but slightly stronger results of 1.12 million tons as compared to our 2024 projection of 1.07 million tons. This forecast includes little to no volume for carbon capture or hydrogen pipelines as the challenges with permitting and land acquisition continue for Summit Carbon Solutions, clearly the needle-mover in terms of pipe for carbon capture. This could change, of course, but our assumption today is that this is a post-2025 event. This is also not to say there is no pipe for carbon capture, just no significant tonnage. It should be noted that shipments could end up higher next year due to the gap between production and installation on projects which isn’t always easy to predict. As in the OCTG segment, some environment of tariffs is assumed and import share approximates late 2018 levels. Import Supply – The September line pipe import total was 94,647 tons which was about 16% below the license total published last month. October licenses ended the month at 67,096 tons representing about a 15,000 deficit to the license projection published last month. Through November 18th, line pipe licenses totaled 56,768 tons leading to a linear forecast of about 108,000 tons. We believe the forecast is high. Carbon ERW, over 4 ½”, not over 16”, was the import category with the highest volume for September at 33,707 tons with a CIF value of $1,110/ton. This represents an increase of $62/ton from last month.
Preston Pipe Report – November 2024
Pipe Exchange
14025 West Road
Suite 100
Houston, TX 77041
- Phone: 713.934.9480
- Fax: 713.934.9490
- Email: sales@pipexch.com