(by Paul Vivian and Rick Preckel, www.prestonpipe.com) Market Monitor – Line pipe shipments are expected to reach nearly 2.5m tons, up more than 32% compared to a lackluster 2022. Supporting this growth was pipeline project construction including WhiteWater’s Matterhorn Express, Monument’s NG3 and Williams’ Loiusiana Energy Gateway. It is likely, particularly for the Matterhorn Express, that some line pipe was shipped in 2022. Also notable, all three ‘major’ projects are in Texas and Louisiana, where energy infrastructure is less contested. Looking forward to 2024, LNG export facility construction is the primary swing driver for line pipe demand. Three LNG export facilities (in TX and LA) are expected to be comissioned by the end of 2025. This new demand is expected to exceed existing pipeline infrastructure capacity, requiring new pipeline construction. Outside of the Gulf Coast region, the proposed Alaska LNG project carries significant linepipe requirements, but is already contested and a positive FID is unlikely we believe. Recent developments have also cast doubt on feasibilty for pipelines which aim to support decarbonization. Last month we reported on the cancellation of Navigator’s Heartland Greenway and the delay of Summit’s Midwest Carbon Express, both CCS network projects. Associated line pipe volumes have been adjusted in our 2024 forecast. In hydrogen, the US DOE has provided more information regarding the timing of it’s hydrogen hub project selections, details are outlined in the stainless section of this report. Import Supply – September line pipe imports totaled 91,039 tons, short of the license tally reported last month by around 3,600 tons. October 2023 import licenses fell from the linear estimate to 97,633 tons. The November linear forecast, 8 of 22 days summed, is up again at 167,000 tons. The top line pipe import item for September was CARBON ERW, OVER 4 ½” OD, NOT OVER 16” OD, at 34,015 tons at a price of $1,016/ton, down $90/ton from August.
Preston Pipe Report – November 2023
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