(by Paul Vivian and Rick Preckel, www.prestonpipe.com) Market Monitor – Our projected line pipe shipments for 2021 will represent the lowest line pipe volume in at least 20 years (that’s all the farther we looked back). As a reminder, 20 years takes us back prior to the paradigm shift in HRB prices that occurred in 2003/2004. While projecting 2021 is challenging based on the irregularity of imports and the lumpiness of project business, we expect <=16” OD shipments to end up at about 750,000 tons which is very similar to 2020 volume. Large diameter is expected to end the year at about 600,000 tons but could shift a bit based on shipment timing. Our forecast for 2022 includes about 950,000 tons of small diameter based upon a stronger average rig count (and higher forecast completions) for the year, and some expected inventory build. In the large diameter range, we are forecasting a 50% increase in shipments to about 920,000 tons driven by maintenance activity, small projects, and a few that are more notable. Large diameter line pipe could also suffer from available inventory on the ground from cancelled projects. Our analysis is a few months old but indications were at the time that there were several hundred thousand tons available. Recently we received in the office a bid opportunity for cancelled Keystone XL pipe, all barcoded and traceable, about 30,000 tons with a starting bid price of $250/ton and a reserve at $500/ton. Import Supply – The September import total was 100,595 tons which was right on the license tally from last month. October import licenses show a drop in volume to 57,357 tons. The November forecast, with 11 of 21 days summed, is back up at 105,964 tons. The top import item for the month of September 2021 was Carbon ERW 4 ½” not over 16” OD at 55,033 tons. The price was $1,098/ton. This is up $100/ton over last month with much higher volume.
Preston Pipe Report – Nov 2021
Pipe Exchange
14025 West Road
Suite 100
Houston, TX 77041
- Phone: 713.934.9480
- Fax: 713.934.9490
- Email: sales@pipexch.com