(by Paul Vivian and Rick Preckel, www.prestonpipe.com) Market Monitor – Construction of LNG export facilities is a demand driver for pipeline construction. Vast changes in global natural resource supply routing began when Europe sought to replace Russian supplies as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. US LNG exporters streamlined operations and stretched capacities to meet demand, and as a result, the US jumped ahead of Qatar and Australia to become the world’s top LNG exporter in 2023. Routing remains in flux today as tankers are attacked and detained in the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, and Red Sea. This, combined with growing US domestic natural gas recovery, provides momentum for positive FIDs and new project announcements. The US currently has nine operating LNG export facilities with ~15 Bcf/d output. Six projects, with combined capacity of ~14 Bcf/d, have cleared permitting and reached a positive FID, the last of which is slated to commission in 2027. Another 29 projects have been announced and are in permitting/planning stages. These announcements combine for a total of ~29 Bcf/d, offering a roadmap for 4X growth in LNG exports by 2032. The chart at the top of this column shows capacity of these projects by maturity stage. It is unlikely that all of these projects will reach a positive FID, and those that do will encounter regulatory, legal, and logistical delays, but significant growth in the sector is certain in the next 5-10 years. Import Supply –
The November import total was 71,522 tons which was nearly 40,000 tons below the license tally from last month. December import licenses are up at 113,696 tons. The January linear forecast, with 11 of 22 days summed, is back down at 108,210 tons. Big swings in volume. A new item topped line pipe imports for the month of November 2023, it was alloy SAW, over 16” OD, at 25,059 tons. The price was $1,556/ton.