(by Paul Vivian and Rick Preckel, www.prestonpipe.com) Market Monitor – Total line pipe shipments in 2021 were 1.38 million tons which was made up of 787k tons of 0-16” OD and 596k tons of >16” OD. This is the lowest level of large diameter line pipe shipped – by a lot – since at least 2005. Contributing factors include recent expansions of capacity in several key basins, cancellations of projects due to endless challenges and escalating permitting costs, a lack of the ability to rely on decisions made by regulators, Covid-19, and other factors. On the small diameter side, last year’s volume was second lowest in the aforementioned time frame with 2020 being just slightly softer. For 2022, if you read the OCTG section, you will note that we have upped our rig count forecast from 583 rigs to 650 rigs. In addition, small OD line pipe inventory was drawn down substantially in 2021 which will limit that source of supply for the current year. As a result, we are raising our forecast for 0-16” line pipe to 1.2 million tons which represents an increase of 250k tons, or 26.3% from the forecast we presented at our 5th annual OCTG & Line Pipe Forecasting Conference last fall. For large diameter, we are unfortunately reducing our forecast to 750k tons from our fall forecast of 920k tons. This still represents an increase over 2021 levels of about 150k tons. The lack of new project announcements during the pandemic along with the adjustment to a new administration is taking its toll in this sector. New FERC regulations are potentially about to start adding additional headwinds. Import Supply – The December import total was 89,025 tons which was about 5% over the license tally from last month. January import licenses show a further increase in volume to 93,005 tons. The February forecast, with 10 of 20 days summed, is down at 61,316 tons. The top import item for the month of December 2021 was carbon ERW, from 4 ½” through 16” OD, at 38,226 tons. The price was $1,475/ton. This is up $29/ton and $477/ton respectively, over last month and the last four months.
Preston Pipe Report – February 2022
Pipe Exchange
14025 West Road
Suite 100
Houston, TX 77041
- Phone: 713.934.9480
- Fax: 713.934.9490
- Email: sales@pipexch.com