Port Authority Answering Questions on the Upcoming Supreme Court Tariff Ruling

Port Authority Answering Questions on the Upcoming Supreme Court Tariff Ruling

Summary

After almost a full year of trade policy announcements, the annual effective tariff rate has risen roughly tenfold since the start of this year, an escalation that has redefined America’s role in global trade. While the tariffs themselves create uncertainty, the judiciary has questioned the very basis of the legal authorization granting the power to impose some of the most far-reaching universal tariffs, an issue we first raised after Trump’s election victory in a publication titled “On What Authority.”

The Supreme Court is set to begin hearing arguments on that question in its current term, raising important questions. In this piece we do our best to provide answers to some of the most pressing ones:

  • What tariffs are currently in effect and under what authority were they imposed?
    • Tariffs currently cover around 65% of imports and fall largely into two buckets, product-level and universal, with different legislation used by President Trump to impose them.
  • What is the Supreme Court considering in November, and how is it likely to rule?
    • The Court is considering President Trump’s legal authority to impose universal tariffs under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). It’s unclear how the Court will rule, and, although a verdict could take weeks or even months, we may be able to gauge the Justice’s leanings when opening arguments begin in early November. Prediction markets suggest it’s more likely the Court strikes the tariffs down.
  • If some tariffs are ruled illegal, what happens to tariff payments previously made?
    • Collected funds would need to be refunded to the U.S. importers or businesses who paid them. This would take time and therefore not be a windfall of cash for businesses at the time of the verdict. The ultimate total size of refunds depends on a few factors but is somewhere in the ballpark of $70-$90 billion, and is rising.
  • Could President Trump then rely on other legislation to re-impose tariffs?
    • Yes, there is other legislation Trump could rely on to impose tariffs, but we are not aware of anything that grants the President the same broad power with immediate effect as the IEEPA, likely somewhat limiting the scope of additional tariffs but not completely dismissing them.
  • What are the economic implications if the Supreme Court rules IEEPA tariffs illegal?
    • The likely knee-jerk reaction to removing tariffs is to remove uncertainty and the stagflationary-shock from the economy, but it’s not that simple. Continued uncertainty around what tariffs may come to pass could be a headwind to growth generally, and more specifically the fear of looming changes to tariffs could leave businesses reluctant to cease cost pass-through.

From the Port to the Court

What tariffs are currently in effect and under what authority were they imposed?

The Trump administration’s far-ranging tariffs that cover around 65% of all U.S. imports have largely fallen into two buckets, each with their own basis in law, though the sturdiness of that legal justification has been brought into question in the courts. The first broad grouping is the sector- or product-level tariffs (e.g. steel, aluminum, autos). These appear to be on more solid footing in terms of the power granted under the law. Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 grants the President authority to impose tariffs on imports that “threaten to impair the national security.” In order for these tariffs to go into effect, the U.S. Department of Commerce must complete an investigation determining the threat.

The second broad grouping is the universal or reciprocal tariffs (e.g., trafficking fentanyl, reciprocal universal). These levies were imposed through Section 203 of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA), which allows the President some scope to regulate trade only if the President declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA). Unlike the Section 232 authorization, which requires time for the Commerce Department to conduct their investigation, these Section 203 tariffs take effect immediately under this 1977 Act. However, whether this statute lets the President unilaterally impose long-term, economy-wide tariffs is a matter soon to be considered by the Supreme Court.

What is the Supreme Court considering in November, and how is it likely to rule?

Following ‘Liberation Day’ back in early April, some businesses and state-governments brought cases against the administration questioning the legality of Trump’s ‘trafficking’ (fentanyl) and ‘reciprocal’ (universal) tariffs under IEEPA. The administration appealed the decisions of the trial and appellate courts which ruled against the tariffs, and the issue is now before the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS).

The Court fast-tracked the timeline of the case. Oral arguments are set to begin November 5, at which time we may get a feel for the Justices’ initial thoughts through the questions and comments they raise, but a decision is not required until the end of the Court’s term in June/July 2026, meaning it’s quite possible it is months before we have a verdict. Unanimous decisions are typically released sooner, and there is also some historical precedent for quicker decisions in high-profile cases surrounded with unusual and urgent contexts. Take Bush v. Gore, for example, which was decided the day after oral arguments in part due to the strict deadline around certifying the election, but also the public and political pressure surrounding the outcome. With no business left untouched by tariffs today, the broad nature of the case may accelerate the timeline, and there is some belief among law professionals that a final decision may come by year-end or the first quarter.

We are not sure how the Court will ultimately rule, and tariffs will remain in effect until a ruling is made. There’s little precedent to draw from, as no other president has relied on IEEPA to impose tariffs. The closest historical example is perhaps when U.S. importers filed lawsuits against President Nixon’s 1971 use of the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917 (TWEA), which predated IEEPA, to impose a 10% tariff on all imports into the U.S. to address a balance-of-payments crisis.1 The U.S. Court of Customs and Patent Appeals upheld the government’s use of tariffs, and the legal debate never made its way to the Supreme Court. Importantly, these tariffs differ from the current use of the IEEPA as they were announced as temporary import taxes and were in effect for just four months from August to December 1971. Prediction market sites Polymarket and Kalshi both suggest roughly a 60% chance that SCOTUS strikes down the Trump tariffs.

If some tariffs are ruled illegal, what happens to tariff payments previously made?

If the Supreme Court rules the administration overstepped the authority granted in IEEPA, the U.S. Treasury Department would then be legally required to return the tariff funds collected to the U.S. importers/businesses who paid them to Customs at the port of entry into the United States.

Through September, the U.S. Treasury Department collected $174 billion in tariff revenue this year—more than double the total amount collected all of last year and representing over 4% of federal revenue collected. We estimate somewhere between 40% and 50% of this revenue was through IEEPA tariffs, which would put the total amount refunded somewhere in the ballpark of $70-$90 billion, if full use of the IEEPA (fentanyl and universal tariffs) is deemed an overstep. The amount to be potentially refunded will likely rise, as tariffs remain in effect until the Court reaches a verdict and recently-imposed higher reciprocal rates across a number of countries are still taking effect. But these figures are meant to be broad estimates as they ultimately depend on certain tariff-related assumptions, and it may be possible the Court could rule only a portion of tariffs under IEEPA are illegal.2

While there are all sorts of logistical questions around how collected tariff duties would be refunded, it is not completely unprecedented. In United States v. United States Shoe Corp (1998), SCOTUS struck down the Harbor Maintenance Tax as unconstitutional when applied to exports. The government was required to refund payments collected on exports, a process that reportedly took years for non-plaintiffs who had to file claims, show proof of payment and wait for Congressional appropriations and administrative mechanisms. There’s also a question around if importers would be entitled to interest on tariffs paid. Bottom line, if IEEPA tariffs are struck down, it likely would take time to see refunds and thus not equate to an immediate windfall of cash for businesses.

Could President Trump then rely on other legislation to re-impose tariffs?

The administration would likely try to rely on other legislation to impose tariffs, but importantly we’re not aware of anything that grants the President the same broad power with immediate effect as the IEEPA. Most other legislation requires an investigation by a federal agency, or limits the tariff rate or the period in which tariffs can remain in effect. Below is a short list of potential legislation upon which the President could rely, but since Congress has delegated trade policy authority to the executive branch through a number of Acts over the past 90 or so years, this list is not meant to be exhaustive:3

  • Section 232, Trade Expansion Act of 1962: President can impose tariffs indefinitely if the U.S. Department of Commerce finds that imports of a product threaten to impair national security.
  • Section 122, Trade Act of 1974: President can impose tariffs up to 15% for 150 days to address balance-of-payments issue. Tariffs can be extended indefinitely with Congressional approval. No federal investigation required.
  • Section 201, Trade Act of 1974: President can impose temporary tariffs up to 50% for four years if the International Trade Commission finds serious injury to domestic industry. Tariff rate must be phased-down after one year, and tariffs can be extended to eight years.
  • Section 301, Trade Act of 1974: U.S. Trade Representative can impose tariffs for four years, under the President’s direction, if it finds unjustifiable, unreasonable or discriminatory action against U.S. businesses and/or a violation of trade agreements. Tariffs may be imposed indefinitely, if continuation is requested and extended every four years.
  • Section 338, Tariff Act of 1930: President can impose tariffs up to 50% indefinitely in response to foreign discrimination against U.S. commerce. No federal investigation required.

What are the economic implications if the Supreme Court rules IEEPA tariffs illegal?

We have long held that a sudden and sharp increase in the tariff rate has scope to introduce a mild stagflationary shock to the economy, though we’re not convinced the Court striking down a chunk of the tariffs would pave the way for faster growth or less inflation. It would not restore the status quo when it comes to tariffs, but would remove the legal basis for part of the tariff structure and prompt the administration to seek alternative legislation to impose tariffs. Importantly, a broad range of product-level tariffs would remain in place, keeping the U.S. effective tariff rate near 9% annually—more than four-times last year’s level and the highest since WWII. It’s also unclear if trade ‘deals’ and company-specific investment commitments would hold if the legislation underpinning the tariffs is overturned and/or modified.

In the near term, businesses could face even greater uncertainty about their exposure, even if such an outcome ultimately brought longer-term stability for trade policy and the economy. Many firms may hesitate to take up new investments and some still could pass on costs to protect margins out of fear of where tariffs may be headed in the future. At the end of the day, it wasn’t just the added cost of tariffs, but the uncertainty around which products and partners would ultimately be exposed that paralyzed decision-making. Another wave of uncertainty would be unavoidable and drive fresh headwinds for businesses heading into next year.

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PIPE EXCHANGE PRIVACY POLICY

Last Updated: August 2019

 

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Under California Civil Code Sections 1798.83-1798.84, California residents are entitled to ask us for a notice identifying the categories of personal information which we share with our affiliates and/or third parties for marketing purposes, and providing contact information for such affiliates and/or third parties.  If you are a California resident and would like a copy of this notice, please submit a written request to: privacy@pipexch.com

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PIPE EXCHANGE TERMS OF USE

Last updated: August 2019

Welcome to https://pipexch.com/Pipe Exchange (the “Website”). The Website is owned and operated by Pipe Exchange LLCPipe ExchangePipe Exchange including its related companies, affiliates and subsidiaries (collectively “Pipe Exchange,” “we,” “us,” “our”). We make the Website available to you, subject to the following Terms of Use (these “Terms of Use”). PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING TERMS OF USE CAREFULLY BEFORE USING THE WEBSITE. By using the Website, you agree to these Terms of Use and agree they create a legally binding agreement between you and Pipe Exchange. If you do not agree to these Terms of Use, you may not use the Website. These Terms of Use are effective unless and until terminated by Pipe Exchange.

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Pipe Exchange respects the intellectual property rights of others. As between you and Pipe Exchange, and except any User Information which you provide, all rights, title and interests in the Website, including all the content (including, for example, audio, photographs, illustrations, graphics, other visuals, video, copy, software, etc.), code, data and materials thereon, the look and feel, design and organization of the Website, and the compilation of the content, code, data and materials on the Website, including but not limited to any copyrights, trademark rights, patent rights, database rights, moral rights, sui generis rights and other intellectual property and proprietary rights therein (collectively the “Content”) are owned by Pipe Exchange or by third parties who have licensed or provided their Content to us. The Website is protected under Trademarks (as defined below), copyright, patent, trade secret and other intellectual property rights laws, and your use of the Website does not grant to you ownership of any Content you may access on the Website. You are prohibited from using the Website to infringe or violate any intellectual property rights. Pipe Exchange may terminate your right to access the Website if it believes you are using the Website in a manner that infringes the copyright, trademark, patent or other intellectual property rights of another.

We may investigate occurrences that may involve violations of the security of the Services or of the law and we may involve, and cooperate with, law enforcement authorities in prosecuting users who are involved in such violations.

The trademarks, logos, service marks and trade names (collectively the “Trademarks”) displayed on the Website or on content available through the Website are registered and unregistered Trademarks of ours and others and may not be used unless authorized by the trademark owner.  All Trademarks not owned by us that appear on the Website or on or through the Website’s services, if any, are the property of their respective owners.  Nothing contained on the Website should be construed as granting, by implication, estoppel, or otherwise, any license or right to use any Trademark displayed on the Website without our written permission or that of the third-party rights holder.  Your misuse of the Trademarks displayed on the Website is strictly prohibited.  Pipe Exchange will aggressively enforce its Trademark rights to the fullest extent of the law, including the seeking of criminal prosecution.

PERSONAL USE ONLY

The Website and the Content are intended for your personal use.  You may access and view the content on the Website via your computer or other internet compatible device, and make single copies or prints of the content on the Website for your personal, internal use only.   The Website and the services offered on or through the Website, including Pipe Exchange’s e-publication and any other content and materials thereon, are only for your personal, non-commercial use. Except as otherwise provided on the Website, you may not modify, copy, distribute, transmit, display, perform, reproduce, publish, license, sell, create derivative works from, transfer, or sell any information, software, products or services obtained from the Website. Use of the Website to sell a product or service, or to increase traffic to your website for commercial reasons, such as advertising sales is expressly forbidden.

PROHIBITED USE

Any commercial distribution, publishing or exploitation of the Website, or any content, code, data or materials on the Website, is strictly prohibited unless you have received the express prior permission of Pipe Exchange or the applicable rights holder.  You may not otherwise download, display, copy, reproduce, distribute, modify, perform, transfer, create derivative works from, sell or otherwise exploit any content, code, data or materials on the Website.  If you make other use of the Website, or the content, code, data or materials thereon, except as otherwise provided above, you may violate copyright and other laws of the United States, other countries, as well as applicable state laws and may be subject to liability for such unauthorized use.  Pipe Exchange will aggressively enforce its intellectual property rights to the fullest extent of the law, including the seeking of criminal prosecution.

SECURITY

You are prohibited from violating, or attempting to violate the security of the Website. Any such violations may result in criminal and civil liabilities to you.  You warrant and agree that, while using the Website and the various services and features offered on or through the Website, you shall not: (a) impersonate any person or entity or misrepresent your affiliation with any other person or entity; (b) insert your own or a third party’s advertising, branding or other promotional content into any of the Website’s content, materials or services, or use, redistribute, republish or exploit such content or service for any further commercial or promotional purposes or take any action that would constitute or could be interpreted as an endorsement or sponsorship by Pipe Exchange of any third party site, content, information or other materials, or in any manner that would violate the terms and conditions of any such third party sites; (c) attempt to probe, scan, or test the vulnerability of any system or network; or (d) attempt to gain unauthorized access to data not intended for you and/or other computer systems through the Website.  You shall not: (i) engage in spidering, “screen scraping,” “database scraping,” harvesting of e-mail addresses, wireless addresses or other contact or personal information, or any other automatic means of accessing, logging-in or registering on the Website or for any services or features offered on or through the Website, or obtaining lists of users or obtaining or accessing other information or features on, from or through the Website or the services offered on or through the Website, including, without limitation, any information residing on any server or database connected to the Website or any services offered on or through the Website; (ii) obtain or attempt to obtain unauthorized access to computer systems, materials, information or any services made available on or through the Website through any means; (iii) use the Website or the services made available on or through the Website in any manner with the intent to interrupt, damage, disable, overburden, or impair the Website or such services, including, without limitation, sending mass unsolicited messages or “flooding,” “spamming,” or “crashing” any systems; (iv) use the Website or the Website’s services or features in violation of Pipe Exchange’s or any third party’s intellectual property or other proprietary or legal rights; or (v) use the Website or the Website’s services in violation of any applicable law.  You further agree that you may not attempt (or encourage or support anyone else’s attempt) to circumvent, reverse engineer, decrypt, or otherwise alter or interfere with the Website or the Website’s services, or any content thereof, or make unauthorized use thereof.  You agree that you will not use the Website in any manner that could damage, disable, overburden, or impair the Website or interfere with any other party’s use and enjoyment of the Website. You may not obtain or attempt to obtain any materials or information through any means not intentionally made publicly available or provided for through the Website. Pipe Exchange will investigate any alleged violations and will cooperate with law enforcement agencies in their investigations.

THIRD-PARTY CONTENT

Some of the information and material available through the Website are provided to Pipe Exchange by third parties (“Third-Party Material”). In some instances, the source of the Third-Party Material is identified. Third-Party Material is provided for your convenience only and Pipe Exchange does not endorse these materials or the parties who supply them to us. Pipe Exchange does not warrant or represent that these Third-Party Materials are current, accurate or reliable.

COPYRIGHT AGENT

We respect the intellectual property rights of others, and require that the people who use the Website do the same.  If you believe that your work has been copied in a way that constitutes copyright infringement, please forward the following information to Pipe Exchange’s Copyright Agent, designated as such pursuant to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, 17 U.S.C. § 512(c)(2), named below:

  • Your address, telephone number, and email address;
  • A description of the copyrighted work that you claim has been infringed;
  • A description of where the alleged infringing material is located;
  • A statement by you that you have a good faith belief that the disputed use is not authorized by the copyright owner, its agent, or the law;
  • An electronic or physical signature of the person authorized to act on behalf of the owner of the copyright interest; and
  • A statement by you, made under penalty of perjury, that the above information in your Notice is accurate and that you are the copyright owner or authorized to act on the copyright owner’s behalf.
  • For all email submissions please include the subject line: DMCA Takedown Request.

 

Pipe Exchange has adopted a policy of terminating, in appropriate circumstances, accounts of users of the services or the Website who are deemed to have repeatedly uploaded content that infringes the intellectual property rights of others.

 

Copyright Agent:

Pipe Exchange Legal

c/o Pipe Exchange LLC

14025 West Road.
Suite #100
Houston, TX 77041

Phone: + (713) 934-9480

Email: dmca@pipexch.com

DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES

THE WEBSITE AND ITS CONTENT ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE” BASIS, WITHOUT REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND WHATSOEVER. PIPE EXCHANGE, TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING THE WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY, NON-INFRINGEMENT OF THIRD PARTIES RIGHTS, AND THE WARRANTY OF FITNESS FOR PARTICULAR PURPOSE. PIPE EXCHANGE MAKES NO WARRANTIES ABOUT THE ACCURACY, RELIABILITY, COMPLETENESS, OR TIMELINESS OF THE MATERIAL, SERVICES, SOFTWARE, TEXT, GRAPHICS, AND LINKS FOUND OR CONTAINED ON THE WEBSITE. PIPE EXCHANGE DOES NOT WARRANT THAT THE WEBSITE, THE CONTENT, OR ITS SERVERS ARE FREE OF VIRUSES OR OTHER HARMFUL COMPONENTS. YOU UNDERSTAND AND AGREE THAT YOU OBTAIN MATERIAL THROUGH THE USE OF THE WEBSITE AT YOUR OWN DISCRETION AND RISK AND THAT YOU WILL BE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DAMAGES TO YOUR COMPUTER SYSTEM OR LOSS OF DATA THAT RESULTS.

ALL MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THE WEBSITE IS FOR GENERAL INFORMATION ONLY, HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED, HAS NOT BEEN RECOMMENDED BY ANY FEDERAL OR STATE REGULATORY AUTHORITY AND MAY CONTAIN ERRORS OR OMISSIONS OF MATERIAL INFORMATION. THE MATERIAL AND INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THE WEBSITE SHOULD NOT, THEREFORE, BE USED OR RELIED UPON FOR ANY SPECIFIC REASON OR APPLICATION WITHOUT INDEPENDENT COMPETENT PROFESSIONAL EXAMINATION AND VERIFICATION OF ITS ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, SUITABILITY AND APPLICABILITY. ANYONE MAKING USE OF THE MATERIAL DOES SO AT HIS/HER/ITS OWN SOLE AND EXCLUSIVE RISK AND ASSUMES ANY AND ALL ACTUAL OR POTENTIAL DAMAGE OR LIABILITY RESULTING FROM SUCH USE.

LIMITATION OF LIABILITY

IN NO EVENT SHALL PIPE EXCHANGE BE LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES WHATSOEVER (INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES, LOST PROFITS, OR DAMAGES RESULTING FROM LOST DATA OR BUSINESS INTERRUPTION) RESULTING FROM THE USE OR INABILITY TO USE MATERIAL ON THE WEBSITE OR SITES LINKED TO THE WEBSITE, WHETHER BASED ON WARRANTY, CONTRACT, TORT, OR ANY OTHER LEGAL THEORY, AND WHETHER OR NOT PIPE EXCHANGE IS ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.

TERMINATION

Pipe Exchange may terminate, change, suspend or discontinue any aspect of the Website or the Website’s services at any time.  Pipe Exchange may restrict, suspend or terminate your access to the Website and/or its services if we believe you are in breach of our terms and conditions or applicable law, or for any other reason without notice or liability.  Pipe Exchange maintains a policy that provides for the termination in appropriate circumstances of the Website use privileges of users who are repeat infringers of intellectual property rights.

USER’S REMEDY

If you are dissatisfied with any portion of the Website or with any of these Terms of Use, your sole and exclusive remedy is to discontinue using the Website.

GOVERNING LAW AND VENUE

These Terms of Use and the relationship between you and Pipe Exchange shall be governed by the laws of the United States and the State of Florida without regard to its conflict of law provisions. You hereby irrevocably submit and consent to the personal and exclusive jurisdiction of the courts located within Miami-Dade County, Florida and agree that any cause of action that may arise under these Terms of Use and all disputes arising out of or relating to the use of the Website shall be commenced and be heard in the appropriate court in Miami-Dade County, Florida. The failure of Pipe Exchange to exercise or enforce any right or provision of these Terms of Use shall not constitute a waiver of such right or provision. If any provision of these Terms of Use is found by a court of competent jurisdiction to be invalid, the parties nevertheless agree that the court should endeavor to give effect to the parties’ intentions as reflected in the provision, and the other provisions of these Terms of Use remain in full force and effect. 

QUESTIONS ABOUT TERMS OF USE

If you have any questions regarding these Terms of Use, please either:

Send an email to sales@pipexch.com

Write to Pipe Exchange at the following address:

14025 West Road

Suite 100

Houston, TX 77041