- Theories that oil supply will peak tend to miss the mark, OPEC’s secretary general wrote.
- Such warnings have emerged since the 1880s, but fail to come true, Haitham Al Ghais said.
- “Throughout history, repeated predictions of peak oil supply have repeatedly been moved further into the future, and at ever-higher levels.”
There’s no evidence that oil supply is set to peak, and earlier warnings have missed the mark, according to OPEC’s secretary general.
Such predictions go as far back as the 1880s and gained more traction in the 1950s, when geologist Marion King Hubbert said oil production would max out by the 1970s, Haitham Al Ghais wrote in a post on the oil cartel’s website on Wednesday.
“Throughout history, repeated predictions of peak oil supply have repeatedly been moved further into the future, and at ever-higher levels,” he said.
While US production did decline in the 1970s, starting a downtrend that went on for nearly 40 years, the advent of the shale boom has sent output soaring over the last two decades. In fact, the US has since become history’s biggest crude producer.
That’s as innovations like hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have unlocked supplies that were previously deemed unreachable.
“The past peak supply predictions were way off the mark, misled by mistaken assumptions on the size of the recoverable resource base, an underestimation of the impact of technology advancement, and the general resourcefulness of the industry,” Al Ghais wrote.
Meanwhile, debate has also turned to predictions of peak oil demand as the transition to green energy could leave out fossil fuels, he noted.
The International Energy Agency recently forecast that demand for oil, gas, and coal will peak this decade, given new climate policies and structural shifts toward renewables.
“This was despite the IEA only a few years earlier highlighting that the world would still need oil for years to come and stressing the importance of investing in the sector,” Al Ghais quipped.
He added that crude and its derivatives will remain a daily fixture across global economies, given faster industrialization, a growing middle class, and expanding transport.
Meanwhile, the world’s net-zero policy goals are unrealistic, he said. But even alongside them, new technology won’t help end oil demand, but improve its use — by reducing emissions and introducing carbon capture.
By 2045, total world oil demand will reach 116 million barrels per day, Al Ghais added, up from OPEC’s 2024 forecast for 104.4 million bpd.
