In the News (EIA):
EIA’s updated State Energy Data System shows which states had the most consumption and production in 2018:
EIA updated its State Energy Data System (SEDS) on June 26 with data for 2018. SEDS provides comprehensive energy information, including the consumption, production, and price of natural gas, for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Texas had the highest level of natural gas consumption in 2018 at 12.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). The industrial sector is the largest consuming sector in Texas. The state has a significant amount of oil and natural gas extraction and processing that uses natural gas as fuel and a large chemicals industry that uses natural gas for heat, power, and feedstock. Texas also has the second-largest population of any state, contributing to its demand for power generation—42% of which was natural gas-fired in 2018—to meet cooling demand. The other high-consuming states also tend to have large populations (for example, California, Florida, and Pennsylvania) and/or high concentrations of natural gas-intensive industries (for example, Louisiana, California, and Pennsylvania). Hawaii used the least amount of natural gas of any state in 2018 at 9 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). The sources of supply for Hawaii’s natural gas are synthetic natural gas (SNG) created from naphtha, imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), and renewable natural gas (RNG) produced locally from biomass. These sources are expensive, leading Hawaii to have the highest average natural gas price in the nation in 2018. Hawaii’s average delivered end-use natural gas price was $34.29 per million British thermal unit (MMBtu) in 2018, compared with the national average of $5.71/MMBtu. Aside from Hawaii, natural gas in 2018 was most expensive in Alaska and states in New England where infrastructure constraints can lead to wholesale natural gas price spikes in periods of peak demand during the winter months. Natural gas prices were cheapest in regions close to the Permian Basin, which is in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and offshore Gulf of Mexico production (Louisiana and Mississippi). The state with the cheapest natural gas was Oklahoma, where the price averaged $3.71/MMBtu. Marketed natural gas was produced in 33 states in 2018. Texas had the highest level of marketed natural gas production at 21.5 Bcf/d, followed by Pennsylvania with 17.0 Bcf/d. Much of Texas’s natural gas is associated natural gas that comes from crude oil-focused production. In Pennsylvania, most natural gas production is from wells focused on producing natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids. SEDS contains more information on natural gas production, consumption, prices, and expenditures, as well as detailed data on other energy sources and sectors. In addition, EIA’s State Energy Portal, now published on EIA’s website in a beta version, integrates information from EIA’s State Energy Profiles and other existing products.
Overview:
Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday, June 17 to Wednesday, June 24). The Henry Hub spot price rose from $1.48 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.58/MMBtu yesterday. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the price of the July 2020 contract decreased 4¢, from $1.638/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.597/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging July 2020 through June 2021 futures contracts declined 8¢/MMBtu to $2.286/MMBtu. The net injections to working gas totaled 56 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending July 3. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,133 Bcf, which is 28% more than the year-ago level and 17% more than the five-year (2015–19) average for this week. The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 1¢/MMBtu, averaging $4.43/MMBtu for the week ending June 24. The prices of ethane, butane, and isobutane fell by 4%, 3%, and 1%, respectively. The prices of natural gasoline and propane rose by 5% and 4%, respectively. The continuing drop in the natural gasoline price reflects stock overbuild. According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, June 16, the natural gas rig count decreased by 3 to 75. The number of oil-directed rigs fell by 10 to 189. The total rig count decreased by 13, and it now stands at 266.
Prices/Supply/Demand:
Prices rise at most locations in the Lower 48 states. This report week (Wednesday, June 17 to Wednesday, June 24), the Henry Hub spot price rose 10¢ from $1.48/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.58/MMBtu yesterday after reaching a high of $1.60/MMBtu on Monday. Higher prices come with mixed temperatures, with warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast and cooler-than-normal temperatures over the Rockies and parts of the Midwest. At the Chicago Citygate, the price increased 8¢ from $1.51/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.59/MMBtu yesterday. California prices are up. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased 19¢ from $1.72/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.91/MMBtu yesterday, with the price reaching a high of $2.12/MMBtu on Monday. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 8¢, up from $2.28/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.36/MMBtu yesterday. Northeast prices rise during heat wave. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price went up 8¢ from $1.51/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.59/MMBtu yesterday after reaching a high of $1.84/MMBtu on Monday. Temperatures in Boston were generally higher than 80 degrees Fahrenheit throughout the week, prompting increased demand for cooling. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price increased 7¢ from $1.44/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.51/MMBtu yesterday as temperatures reached monthly highs at the end of the report week. The Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus spot price increased 7¢ from $1.30/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.37/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Dominion South in southwest Pennsylvania rose 9¢ from $1.31/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.40/MMBtu yesterday. Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO) declares a force majeure On Tuesday, TETCO declared a force majeure on its entire 30-inch diameter pipeline spanning from Uniontown, Pennsylvania, to Kosciusko, Mississippi. The force majeure could reduce throughput capacity at Uniontown from 4.2 Bcf/d to 2.5 Bcf/d, according to estimates from Genscape. Permian Basin discount to the Henry Hub narrows. The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, averaged a low of $1.27/MMBtu last Wednesday, 21¢/MMBtu lower than the Henry Hub price. Yesterday, the price at the Waha Hub averaged $1.45/MMBtu, 13¢/MMBtu lower than the Henry Hub price. Supply rises slightly, driven by an increase in imports from Canada. According to data from IHS Markit, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 0.6% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.3% compared with the previous report week. Average net imports from Canada increased by 13.0% from last week, with increased flows at border crossing points in the Northeast to meet regional demand. Demand rises because of increased power generation. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 9.8% compared with the previous report week, according to data from IHS Markit. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed by 20.5% week over week as temperatures increase following last week’s mild weather. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 0.1%. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 1.0% week over week. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 6.4%. Feedgas to liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals on Wednesday increased 0.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), or 18%, compared to last Wednesday, giving lift to prices. U.S. LNG exports decrease week over week. Seven liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels (three from Cameron, two from Sabine Pass, and one each from Cove Point and Corpus Christi) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 25 Bcf departed the United States between June 18 and June 24, 2020, according to shipping data provided by Marine Traffic.
Storage:
The net injections into storage totaled 56 Bcf for the week ending July 3, compared with the five-year (2015–19) average net injections of 68 Bcf and last year’s net injections of 83 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,133 Bcf, which is 454 Bcf more than the five-year average and 685 Bcf more than last year at this time. According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 50 Bcf to 66 Bcf, with a median estimate of 56 Bcf. The average rate of injections into storage is 15% higher than the five-year average so far in the refill season (April through October). If the rate of injections into storage matched the five-year average of 8.7 Bcf/d for the remainder of the refill season, the total inventory would be 4,177 Bcf on October 31, which is 454 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,723 Bcf for that time of year.