Market Highlights:
Prices
Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 49 cents from $3.91 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $4.40/MMBtu yesterday. Henry Hub futures price: The April 2025 NYMEX contract price increased to $4.450/MMBtu, up 49 cents from last Wednesday to yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging April 2025 through March 2026 futures contracts climbed 42 cents to $4.840/MMBtu. Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday, February 26, to Wednesday, March 5). Price changes ranged from a decrease of 43 cents at Waha to an increase of 64 cents at Northwest Sumas. Prices rose in the Northeast, in line with the Henry Hub. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price rose 27 cents from $4.07/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.34/MMBtu yesterday. The Algonquin Citygate price reached an intraweek high of $9.88/MMBtu on February 28, when Algonquin Gas Transmission issued an Operational Flow Order ahead of very cold weather during March 2 and March 3. Temperatures in the Boston Area averaged 23°F during that period, 14°F lower than the weekly average temperature of 37°F. At the Transco Zone 6 NY trading point for New York City, the price increased 50 cents from $3.60/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.10/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the New York-Central Park Area followed a similar pattern to the Boston area, reaching intraweek lows during March 2 and March 3, when temperatures averaged 29°F, 12°F below the average of 41°F this report week. Prices rose on the West Coast this report week. The price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, rose 64 cents from $1.65/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.29/MMBtu yesterday. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 44 cents, up from $3.81/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.25/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased 12 cents from $4.19/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.31/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the Sacramento Area fell 1°F from last week to 54°F, leading to 77 heating degree days (HDD), 11 HDDs more than the previous report week. The average temperature in the Riverside Area, inland from Los Angeles, fell 2°F to 63°F, leading to 29 HDDs, 25 HDDs more than the previous report week. Total natural gas consumption in California rose 10% (0.4 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) this report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, fell 43 cents this report week, from $1.50/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.07/MMBtu yesterday. The Waha Hub traded $3.33 below the Henry Hub price yesterday, compared with last Wednesday when it traded $2.41 below the Henry Hub price. The price reached an intraweek low of $0.03/MMBtu on February 28 due to ongoing maintenance on the El Paso Natural Gas pipeline system.
Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website
International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices decreased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia decreased 15 cents to a weekly average of $13.87/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands decreased 43 cents to a weekly average of $13.55/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending March 6, 2024), the prices were $8.36/MMBtu in East Asia and $8.38/MMBtu at TTF. Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 17 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.89/MMBtu for the week ending March 5. Ethane prices rose 3% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel decreased 6%, widening the ethane premium to natural gas by 51%. The ethylene spot price fell 5% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane decreased 9%. Propane prices were relatively unchanged, while Brent crude oil prices decreased 3% week over week, narrowing the propane discount to crude oil by 15%. Normal butane and isobutane prices both fell 7%, and natural gasoline prices fell 4%.
Supply and Demand
Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 0.7% (0.8 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 2.1% (2.2 Bcf/d) to average 106.2 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada decreased by 20.9% (1.4 Bcf/d) from last week. Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 14.5% (14.4 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed in the residential and commercial sector declined by 21.1% (8.7 Bcf/d) as warmer weather conditions persisted across much of the United States. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 14.4% (4.7 Bcf/d), and consumption in the industrial sector decreased by 3.9% (1.0 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 0.1% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 16.1 Bcf/d, or 0.3 Bcf/d lower than last week.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals fell 0.3 Bcf/d from last week to 16.1 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 1.8% (0.2 Bcf/d) to 10.2 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas decreased by 2.3% (0.1 Bcf/d) to 4.7 Bcf/d, and natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast increased by 1.8% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) to 1.2 Bcf/d. Vessels departing U.S. ports: Thirty-two LNG vessels (11 from Sabine Pass, 5 each from Cameron and Corpus Christi, 4 from Freeport, 3 from Plaquemines, and 2 each from Calcasieu Pass and Cove Point) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 122 Bcf departed the United States between February 27 and March 5, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P. We estimate that during January and February 2025, the newest U.S. LNG export facility Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 exported a combined 15 LNG cargoes, indicating that the facility operated at 85% of its nominal capacity in February since the start of LNG exports in December 2024.
Storage
Net withdrawals from storage totaled 80 Bcf for the week ending February 28, compared with the five-year (2020–24) average net withdrawals of 94 Bcf and last year’s net withdrawals of 56 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 1,760 Bcf, which is 224 Bcf (11%) lower than the five-year average and 585 Bcf (25%) lower than last year at this time. According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net withdrawals of 66 Bcf to 102 Bcf, with a median estimate of 93 Bcf. The average rate of withdrawals from storage is 25% higher than the five-year average so far in the withdrawal season (November through March). If the rate of withdrawals from storage matched the five-year average of 4.0 Bcf/d for the remainder of the withdrawal season, the total inventory would be 1,636 Bcf on March 31, which is 224 Bcf lower than the five-year average of 1,860 Bcf for that time of year.