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Natural Gas Jumps Higher As Market Stops Worrying About Storage Tank Top

Natural Gas Jumps Higher As Market Stops Worrying About Storage Tank Top

The probability of a natural gas storage tank top is increasingly disappearing as EIA reports tighter than normal storage builds.

With September LNG cargoes done and traders seeing LNG feedgas flow returning to 6-7 Bcf/d, the worries about a storage tank top are starting to dissipate.

After September, LNG cargo cancellation will be minimal as exports in October would arrive at the importing countries in Nov/Dec, or when heating demand starts.

In essence, we only really have to focus on natural gas storage balance from now to the end of August. TDD changes in September and October won’t be meaningful enough to move the needle, and with lower 48 gas production stalling out once again, market balances should continue to tighten.

For us, we are sticking with EQT. Today’s bullish price move comes despite a broader market sell-off, which is encouraging. We still see $17 in the near term.

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, HFI Research Natural Gas. Get started today »

Welcome to the no more tank top edition of Natural Gas Daily!

Note: This article was first published to HFIR subscribers yesterday.

In an article we published earlier this week, we noted that the bears were running out of time in trying to push natural gas prices even lower. Following a series of bearish cooling demand revisions, natural gas prices held firm which led traders to believe that prices were starting to bottom. After overnight ECMWF-EPS added five TDDs, prices shot way up today with August touching $1.8/MMBtu.

EIA natural gas storage report today was also supportive with a build of 37 Bcf vs. our estimate of 30 Bcf. Next week’s build is expected to be between 20 to 30 Bcf, further signaling a low probability that natural gas storage would reach tank top.

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With September LNG cargoes done and traders seeing LNG feedgas flow returning to 6-7 Bcf/d, the worries about a storage tank top are starting to dissipate.

One of the key reasons for the recent weakness was the fact that if storage built at the five-year average from now to November, we would hit operational capacity. This was a scenario the market needed to avoid at all cost, so in essence, it forcibly kept Henry Hub prices low and reopened LNG export economics.

After September, LNG cargo cancellation will be minimal as exports in October would arrive at the importing countries in Nov/Dec, or when heating demand starts. So we don’t see any risk of cancellations in October and beyond.

In essence, we only really have to focus on natural gas storage balance from now to the end of August. TDD changes in September and October won’t be meaningful enough to move the needle and with lower 48 gas production stalling out once again, market balances should continue to tighten.

5006891 15955316679075856

But the difference between 2020 and 2016 is that in 2016, we were much tighter on the balance front, which explained why natural gas hovered closer to $3/MMBtu than $1.80/MMBtu today.

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Despite the pricing difference however, natural gas fundamental balance remains the tightest since 2016, which signals to us a very tight winter balance ahead. A large part of what will drive winter balance will be the weather, but if fundamental balance is increasingly tight going into heating demand season, the market will recognize this fact and push natural gas prices higher to give them the benefit of the doubt.

So for those trying to time natural gas price rise, we think the October – December contracts are a better way of playing the price rally.

For us, we are sticking with EQT (NYSE:EQT). Today’s bullish price move comes despite a broader market sell-off, which is encouraging. We still see $17 in the near term.

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We are now offering a 2-week free trial!

For readers interested in following natural gas fundamentals, HFI Research Natural Gas premium provides:

  • Daily natural gas fundamental updates.
  • Weather updates.
  • Energy ideas.
  • Real-time natural gas trades.

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Copyright Agent:

Pipe Exchange Legal

c/o Pipe Exchange LLC

14025 West Road.
Suite #100
Houston, TX 77041

Phone: + (713) 934-9480

Email: dmca@pipexch.com

DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES

THE WEBSITE AND ITS CONTENT ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE” BASIS, WITHOUT REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND WHATSOEVER. PIPE EXCHANGE, TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING THE WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY, NON-INFRINGEMENT OF THIRD PARTIES RIGHTS, AND THE WARRANTY OF FITNESS FOR PARTICULAR PURPOSE. PIPE EXCHANGE MAKES NO WARRANTIES ABOUT THE ACCURACY, RELIABILITY, COMPLETENESS, OR TIMELINESS OF THE MATERIAL, SERVICES, SOFTWARE, TEXT, GRAPHICS, AND LINKS FOUND OR CONTAINED ON THE WEBSITE. PIPE EXCHANGE DOES NOT WARRANT THAT THE WEBSITE, THE CONTENT, OR ITS SERVERS ARE FREE OF VIRUSES OR OTHER HARMFUL COMPONENTS. YOU UNDERSTAND AND AGREE THAT YOU OBTAIN MATERIAL THROUGH THE USE OF THE WEBSITE AT YOUR OWN DISCRETION AND RISK AND THAT YOU WILL BE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DAMAGES TO YOUR COMPUTER SYSTEM OR LOSS OF DATA THAT RESULTS.

ALL MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THE WEBSITE IS FOR GENERAL INFORMATION ONLY, HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED, HAS NOT BEEN RECOMMENDED BY ANY FEDERAL OR STATE REGULATORY AUTHORITY AND MAY CONTAIN ERRORS OR OMISSIONS OF MATERIAL INFORMATION. THE MATERIAL AND INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THE WEBSITE SHOULD NOT, THEREFORE, BE USED OR RELIED UPON FOR ANY SPECIFIC REASON OR APPLICATION WITHOUT INDEPENDENT COMPETENT PROFESSIONAL EXAMINATION AND VERIFICATION OF ITS ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, SUITABILITY AND APPLICABILITY. ANYONE MAKING USE OF THE MATERIAL DOES SO AT HIS/HER/ITS OWN SOLE AND EXCLUSIVE RISK AND ASSUMES ANY AND ALL ACTUAL OR POTENTIAL DAMAGE OR LIABILITY RESULTING FROM SUCH USE.

LIMITATION OF LIABILITY

IN NO EVENT SHALL PIPE EXCHANGE BE LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES WHATSOEVER (INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES, LOST PROFITS, OR DAMAGES RESULTING FROM LOST DATA OR BUSINESS INTERRUPTION) RESULTING FROM THE USE OR INABILITY TO USE MATERIAL ON THE WEBSITE OR SITES LINKED TO THE WEBSITE, WHETHER BASED ON WARRANTY, CONTRACT, TORT, OR ANY OTHER LEGAL THEORY, AND WHETHER OR NOT PIPE EXCHANGE IS ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.

TERMINATION

Pipe Exchange may terminate, change, suspend or discontinue any aspect of the Website or the Website’s services at any time.  Pipe Exchange may restrict, suspend or terminate your access to the Website and/or its services if we believe you are in breach of our terms and conditions or applicable law, or for any other reason without notice or liability.  Pipe Exchange maintains a policy that provides for the termination in appropriate circumstances of the Website use privileges of users who are repeat infringers of intellectual property rights.

USER’S REMEDY

If you are dissatisfied with any portion of the Website or with any of these Terms of Use, your sole and exclusive remedy is to discontinue using the Website.

GOVERNING LAW AND VENUE

These Terms of Use and the relationship between you and Pipe Exchange shall be governed by the laws of the United States and the State of Florida without regard to its conflict of law provisions. You hereby irrevocably submit and consent to the personal and exclusive jurisdiction of the courts located within Miami-Dade County, Florida and agree that any cause of action that may arise under these Terms of Use and all disputes arising out of or relating to the use of the Website shall be commenced and be heard in the appropriate court in Miami-Dade County, Florida. The failure of Pipe Exchange to exercise or enforce any right or provision of these Terms of Use shall not constitute a waiver of such right or provision. If any provision of these Terms of Use is found by a court of competent jurisdiction to be invalid, the parties nevertheless agree that the court should endeavor to give effect to the parties’ intentions as reflected in the provision, and the other provisions of these Terms of Use remain in full force and effect. 

QUESTIONS ABOUT TERMS OF USE

If you have any questions regarding these Terms of Use, please either:

Send an email to sales@pipexch.com

Write to Pipe Exchange at the following address:

14025 West Road

Suite 100

Houston, TX 77041