In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on August 11 and completed its forecast on August 6, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed its latest estimations of the amount of oil going through the world’s chokepoints.
According to the August STEO – which utilized EIA analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking, as well as World Bank data and Panama Canal Authority data, using EIA conversion factors and calculations – the Strait of Hormuz saw daily transit volumes of petroleum and other liquids of 4.9 million barrels during the second quarter.
The Strait of Malacca saw 16.6 million barrels per day, the Cape of Good Hope saw 9.4 million barrels per day, Bab el-Mandeb saw 8.1 million barrels per day, the Suez Canal saw 5.8 million barrels per day, the Danish Straits saw 4.7 million barrels per day, the Turkish Straits saw 4.1 million barrels per day, and the Panama Canal saw 3.2 million barrels per day during the second quarter, the STEO showed.
“We estimate that crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, down from an average of 21.6 million barrels per day in 4Q25 before the conflict began,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.
“Similarly, total volumes of crude oil and liquids through the Bab el-Mandeb strait averaged 8.1 million barrels per day in 2Q26, up from an average of 5.4 million barrels per day in 4Q25 as Saudi Arabia re-routed crude oil flows away from the Strait of Hormuz through the East-West pipeline to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea,” it added.
In its August STEO, the EIA noted that, following the signing in June of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, the spot price of Brent crude oil “fell as low as $69 per barrel on July 2”. It added that global crude oil prices rose and volatility increased later in July following renewed attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz and the related reduction in oil shipments through the waterway.
“The Brent spot price reached as high as $105 per barrel on July 23,” the EIA pointed out in the STEO.
“In addition to renewed attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices were driven higher due to a new blockade threat on Saudi Arabia’s oil exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait,” it said.
“The Bab el-Mandeb is both a major world oil transit chokepoint and one of the alternative routes used to move Saudi Arabia’s oil shipments while avoiding the Strait of Hormuz,” it added.
“Saudi Arabia retains the option to divert flows through the Suez Canal as well as via the Sumed pipeline in Egypt. However, these alternatives take longer, are more expensive, and are more limited in capacity,” it continued.
Production Shut-Ins
In its latest STEO, the EIA said it assessed that production shut-ins averaged 5.5 million barrels per day in July and noted that, for its analysis, it assumed that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will remain “severely constrained” through August, with flows slowly increasing in September.
“This assumption is prompting us to raise our forecast of shut-in crude oil production in August, further reducing inventories,” the EIA warned.
“We do not assume that the recent threats to ships transporting Saudi Arabian crude oil through the Bab el-Mandeb strait have resulted in any additional shut-ins of crude oil production,” it added.
“If these assumptions hold, we expect it will take until early 2027 for production and trade patterns to generally return to pre-conflict status,” the EIA projected in its report.
“We anticipate nonetheless that some producers around the Persian Gulf will not be able to bring oil output back to pre-conflict averages during the STEO forecast period,” it went on to state.
The EIA noted in its August STEO that, “because of the large drawdown in global inventories triggered by continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz”, it forecasts that oil prices will remain elevated until global oil flows return to normal and oil inventories are replenished.
“We estimate that global oil inventories fell by an average of 4.2 million barrels per day in 2Q26 and that they will fall by an additional 3.8 million barrels per day on average in 3Q26,” the EIA said.
“As a result, we forecast the Brent crude oil spot price will average around $85 per barrel in 3Q26, $11 per barrel higher than in last month’s STEO,” the EIA highlighted.
“Once the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually increases and shut-in oil production increasingly restarts, we forecast oil prices will begin to fall, decreasing to an average of $78 per barrel by 4Q26,” it continued.
“We assess that most shut-in oil production will be largely restored in 1Q27 and that global oil inventories will again start building, gradually lowering oil prices to an average of $69 per barrel in 2027,” the EIA said.
The EIA projected in its August STEO that the Brent spot price will average $86.81 per barrel overall in 2026 and $69.39 per barrel overall in 2027. The commodity came in at $69.04 per barrel last year, the STEO showed.
A quarterly breakdown included in its latest report projected that the Brent spot price will average $85.21 per barrel in the third quarter, $78 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $73.95 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $71 per barrel in the second quarter, $68.02 per barrel in the third quarter, and $64.97 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year.