Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.2 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment (refer to “Updates to GDP”).The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, state and local government spending, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Compared to the third quarter of 2023, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and slowdowns in federal government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports decelerated. Current‑dollar GDP increased 5.1 percent at an annual rate, or $346.9 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $27.96 trillion, an upward revision of $12.4 billion from the previous estimate (tables 1 and 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file on BEA’s website. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, the same as in the previous estimate (table 4). The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.8 percent, the same as the previous estimate, and the PCE index excluding food and energy prices increased 2.0 percent, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point. Personal Income – Current-dollar personal income increased $230.2 billion in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of $10.7 billion from the previous estimate. The increase primarily reflected increases in compensation, personal income receipts on assets, and proprietors’ income. Disposable personal income increased $190.4 billion, or 3.8 percent, in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $12.1 billion from the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income increased 2.0 percent, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point. Personal saving was $815.5 billion in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of $6.3 billion from the previous estimate. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point. Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits – Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the third quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent. Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $133.5 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $108.7 billion in the third quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $5.9 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $9.0 billion in the third quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $136.5 billion, compared with an increase of $90.8 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $8.9 billion, in contrast to an increase of $8.8 billion. In the fourth quarter, receipts decreased $20.1 billion, and payments decreased $11.2 billion. Updates to GDP – With the third estimate, upward revisions to consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending were partly offset by downward revisions to private inventory investment and exports. Imports were revised down. For more information, refer to the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the “Additional Information” section that follows.
Gross Domestic Product – 4th quarter (Third Estimate) (03-28-24)
- Economic Monthly Summaries, Gross Domestic Product
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