Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 5.2 percent. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down (refer to “Updates to GDP”). The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports increased. Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected an upturn in exports and accelerations in consumer spending and private inventory investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports turned up. Current‑dollar GDP increased 8.3 percent at an annual rate, or $547.1 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $27.61 trillion, a downward revision of $34.3 billion from the previous estimate (tables 1 and 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file on BEA’s website. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.9 percent in the third quarter, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate (table 4). The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.6 percent, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.0 percent, a downward revision of 0.3 percentage point. Personal Income – Current-dollar personal income increased $196.2 billion in the third quarter, a downward revision of $22.1 billion from the previous estimate. The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries), nonfarm proprietors’ income, and personal interest income that were partly offset by a decrease in personal current transfer receipts. Disposable personal income increased $143.5 billion, or 2.9 percent, in the third quarter, a downward revision of $0.5 billion from the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income increased 0.3 percent, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point. Personal saving was $851.2 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $35.9 billion from the previous estimate. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.2 percent in the third quarter, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point. Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits – Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.5 percent in the third quarter, the same as previously published. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 3.2 percent in the third quarter, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $108.7 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $3.0 billion from the previous estimate. Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $9.0 billion in the third quarter, a downward revision of $9.8 billion from the previous estimate. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $90.8 billion, an upward revision of $14.7 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $8.8 billion, a downward revision of $1.9 billion. In the third quarter, receipts increased $22.0 billion, and payments increased $13.2 billion. Updates to GDP – With the third estimate, downward revisions to consumer spending, private inventory investment, and exports were partly offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending. Imports were revised down. For more information, refer to the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the “Additional Information” section that follows.
Gross Domestic Product – 3rd quarter (Third Estimate) (12-24-23)
- Economic Monthly Summaries, Gross Domestic Product
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