Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment and consumer spending. Real GDP was revised down 0.3 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting downward revisions to consumer spending and exports that were partly offset by a downward revision to imports. For more information, refer to the “Technical Notes” below. Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in investment. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 1.9 percent in the first quarter, revised down 0.6 percentage point from the previous estimate. From an industry perspective, the decrease in real GDP reflected decreases of 2.8 percent in real value added for private goods-producing industries and 0.3 percent for private services-producing industries that were partly offset by an increase of 2.0 percent in real value added for government. Real gross output increased 0.6 percent in the first quarter, reflecting an increase of 1.1 percent for private services-producing industries that was partly offset by decreases of 0.6 percent for private goods-producing industries and 0.6 percent for government. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter, revised up 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.7 percent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 3.5 percent, both 0.1 percentage point higher than previously estimated. Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.2 percent in the first quarter, revised up 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate. Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $90.6 billion in the first quarter, an upward revision of $27.5 billion.
Gross Domestic Product – 1st quarter (Second Estimate) (06-26-25)
- Economic Monthly Summaries, Gross Domestic Product
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