(04-27-18)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the first quarter of 2018, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.9 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The “second” estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 30, 2018. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The deceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter reflected decelerations in PCE, residential fixed investment, exports, and state and local government spending. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decelerated. Current-dollar GDP increased 4.3 percent, or $211.2 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $19.97 trillion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 5.3 percent, or $253.5 billion. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.7 percent, the same increase as in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent. Personal Income: Current-dollar personal income increased $182.1 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $186.4 billion in the fourth quarter. Decelerations in personal interest income, rental income, and nonfarm proprietors’ income were largely offset by accelerations in wages and salaries and in government social benefits. Personal current taxes decreased $40.1 billion in the first quarter compared with an increase of $50.1 billion in the fourth quarter. Disposable personal income increased $222.1 billion, or 6.2 percent, in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $136.3 billion, or 3.8 percent, in the fourth quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 3.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent. Personal saving was $462.1 billion in the first quarter, compared with $379.8 billion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 3.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act includes provisions that impact the personal income statistics in the National Income and Product Accounts. For more information, see the Technical Note.