The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)for theU.S. decreased by 0.4 percent in July 2022 to 116.6 (2016=100), after declining by 0.7 percent in June. The LEI was down by 1.6 percent over the six-month period from January to July 2022, a reversal from its 1.6 percent growth over the previous six months. “The US LEI declined for a fifth consecutive month in July, suggesting recession risks are rising in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, The Conference Board. “Consumer pessimism and equity market volatility as well as slowing labor markets, housing construction, and manufacturing new orders suggest that economic weakness will intensify and spread more broadly throughout the US economy. The Conference Board projects the US economy will not expand in the third quarter and could tip into a short but mild recession by the end of the year or early 2023.” The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in July 2022 to 108.6 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.1 percent in June. The CEI rose by 0.8 percent over the six-month period from January to July 2022, slower than its growth of 1.2 percent over the previous six-month period. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.4 percent in July 2022 to 114.4 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in June. The LAG is up 3.7 percent over the six-month period from January to July 2022, faster than its growth of 2.0 percent over the previous six-month period.
Conference Board – Leading Economic Index (08-18-22)
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