(05-21-20)
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 4.4 percent in April to 98.8 (2016 = 100), following a 7.4 percent decline in March, and a 0.2 percent decline in February. “In April, the US LEI continued on a downward trajectory, after posting the largest decline in its 60-year history in March,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The erosion has been very widespread, except for stock prices and the interest rate spread which partially reflect the rapid and large response of the Federal Reserve to offset the pandemic’s impact and support financial conditions. The sharp declines in the LEI and CEI suggest that the US economy is now in recession territory.” “Business conditions may recover for some sectors and industries over the next few months,” added Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, “But, the breadth and depth of the decline in the LEI suggests that an imminent re-opening of some sectors does not imply a fast rebound for the economy at large.” The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. declined 8.9 percent in April to 96.6 (2016 = 100), following a 1.5 percent decline in March and a 0.3 percent increase in February. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 4.1 percent in April to 115.3 (2016 = 100), following a 1.7 percent increase in March, and a 0.4 percent increase in February.
