The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. fell again by 0.3 percent in February 2023 to 110.0 (2016=100), after also declining by 0.3 percent in January. The LEI is down 3.6 percent over the six-month period between August 2022 and February 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.0 percent contraction over the previous six months (February–August 2022). “The LEI for the US fell again in February, marking its eleventh consecutive monthly decline,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Negative or flat contributions from eight of the index’s ten components more than offset improving stock prices and a better-than-expected reading for residential building permits. While the rate of month-over-month declines in the LEI have moderated in recent months, the leading economic index still points to risk of recession in the US economy. The most recent financial turmoil in the US banking sector is not reflected in the LEI data but could have a negative impact on the outlook if it persists. Overall, The Conference Board forecasts rising interest rates paired with declining consumer spending will most likely push the US economy into recession in the near term.” The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.1 percent in February 2023 to 109.8 (2016=100), after an increase of 0.2 percent in January. The CEI is now up 0.6 percent over the six-month period between August 2022 and February 2023—slightly lower than 0.7 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months. The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in February 2023 to 118.5 (2016 = 100), following an increase of 0.1 percent in January. The LAG is up 2.1 percent over the six-month period from August 2022 and February 2023, less than half the growth rate of 4.6 percent over the previous six months.
Conference Board – Leading Economic Index (03-17-23)
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