(02-21-19)
NOTE: Please note that due to the recent government shutdown, data for three US LEI components – manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials, manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft and building permits – were not available for several of the recent months. The Conference Board has used its standard procedure of statistical imputations to fill in the missing data in order to publish a preliminary Leading Economic Index. The Conference Board will be issuing an interim release on March 4th, once these data are published.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)for theU.S. declined 0.1 percent in January (according to preliminary estimates) to 111.3 (2016 = 100), following no change in December, and a 0.1 percent increase in November. “Based on preliminary data, the US LEI declined very slightly in January and December’s decline was revised up to no change,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “In January, the strengths in the financial components were offset by the weaknesses in the labor market components. The US LEI has now been flat essentially since October 2018. The Conference Board forecasts that US GDP growth will likely decelerate to about 2 percent by the end of 2019.” The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in January to 105.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in December, and a 0.2 percent increase in November. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in January to 106.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in December and a 0.5 percent increase in November.
