Stronger views of the present situation mostly offset weaker expectations – The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index inched down by 1.0 point in October to 94.6 (1985=100) from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—gained 1.8 points to 129.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined by 2.9 points to 71.5. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025. The cutoff date for preliminary results was October 19, 2025. “Consumer confidence moved sideways in October, only declining slightly from its upwardly revised September level,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “Changes to the individual subcomponents were also limited and largely cancelled each other out. The Present Situation Index regained some strength after September’s drop. Consumers’ view of current business conditions inched upward, while their appraisal of current job availability improved for the first time since December 2024. On the other hand, all three components of the Expectations Index weakened somewhat. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions while optimism about future income retreated slightly.” Among demographic groups, confidence declined for consumers under 35 years old and, to a lesser extent, among consumers over 55. Confidence improved for consumers aged 35 to 54. By income, confidence fell for consumers making less than $75K a year, but improved for most of the income groups making more than $75K, with the largest increase among those earning over $200K. Younger consumers and consumers earning over $75K have been the most optimistic overall. By partisan affiliation, confidence improved among Independents, declined among Democrats, and was also slightly down among Republicans. Guichard added: “Consumers’ write-in responses were led by references to prices and inflation, which continued to be the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy. References to tariffs declined further this month but remained elevated. Mentions of jobs and employment eased somewhat after picking up in September. The write-in comments remained mostly negative overall, but less so than in previous months. References to US politics were up notably, with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned multiple times as a key concern.”
Conference Board – Consumer Confidence Index (10-28-25)
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