The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated for the third consecutive month in April, retreating to 97.0 (1985=100) from a downwardly revised 103.1 in March. Despite these three months of weakness, the gauge continues to move sideways within a relatively narrow range that’s largely held steady for more than two years. The Present Situation Index based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions declined to 142.9 (1985=100) in April from a downwardly revised 146.8 in March. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions fell to 66.4 (1985=100) from a slightly upwardly revised 74.0 last month. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals a forthcoming recession. “Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level since July 2022 as consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation, and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability, and income,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Despite April’s dip in the overall index, since mid-2022, optimism about the present situation continues to more than offset concerns about the future.” “In the month, confidence declined among consumers of all age groups and almost all income groups except for the $25,000 to $49,999 bracket. Nonetheless, consumers under 35 continued to express greater confidence than those over 35. In April, households with incomes below $25,000 and those with incomes above $75,000 reported the largest deteriorations in confidence. However, over a six-month basis, confidence for consumers earning less than $50,000 has been stable, but confidence among consumers earning more has weakened.”
Conference Board – Consumer Confidence Index (04-30-24)
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