Confidence Remains Range-Bound, as Dips in both Current Conditions and Expectations Halt Rising Optimism. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell in February to 106.7 (1985=100), down from a revised 110.9 in January. February’s decline in the Index occurred after three consecutive months of gains. However, as January was revised downward from the preliminary reading of 114.8, the data now suggest that there was not a material breakout to the upside in confidence at the start of 2024. The Present Situation Index based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell back to 147.2 (1985=100) in February from 154.9 in January. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions slipped to 79.8 (1985=100), down from a revised 81.5 in January. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals recession ahead. “The decline in consumer confidence in February interrupted a three-month rise, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the US economy,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “The drop in confidence was broad-based, affecting all income groups except households earning less than $15,000 and those earning more than $125,000. Confidence deteriorated for consumers under the age of 35 and those 55 and over, whereas it improved slightly for those aged 35 to 54.”
Conference Board – Consumer Confidence Index (02-27-24)
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