Confidence edged higher but remained well below heights reached in late 2024 – The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased by 2.2 points in February to 91.2 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January. The Present Situation Index based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions decreased by 1.8 points to 120.0 in February. The Expectations Index based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions rose by 4.8 points to 72.0. The cutoff for preliminary results was February 17, 2026. “Confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Four of five components of the Index firmed. Nonetheless, the measure remained well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024 (112.8).” The Present Situation Index continued to decline, as net views on current business conditions fell to +0.7%. Perceptions of employment conditions improved slightly, with the labor market differential—the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get”—rising 0.6 ppts to +7.4%. All three Expectations Index components advanced slightly in February: expectations for business and labor market conditions six months from now were less negative, while expectations for incomes were more positive. Among demographic groups, confidence on a six-month moving average basis ticked upward in February for consumers under age 35, which continued to be the most optimistic group. Confidence edged down for respondents 35 and older. Relatedly, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence among Generation Z rose, consistent with soundings from the under-age 35 group, but fell among other generations. By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis continued to dip for most brackets. Consumer confidence by political affiliation revived among Republican and Independent voters in February after a dip in January, while Democrats were less optimistic. Peterson added: “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. Comments about prices, inflation, and the cost of goods remained at the top of consumer’s minds. Mentions of trade and politics also increased in February. Labor market mentions eased a bit in February, while observations about immigration increased somewhat.” Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations were little changed but remained elevated. Consumers also believed that interest rates will persist at higher levels over the next 12 months. Most consumers in February continued to expect stock prices to be higher twelve months from now, although the share was slightly smaller than last month. On net, consumers’ views of their Family’s Current Financial Situation retreated in February, after an unexpected surge in January, based on final data. Expectations for their Family’s Future Financial Situation continued to be less optimistic. Meanwhile, the share of consumers who said a US recession over the next 12 months is “very likely” fell, while those saying “not likely” rose. Respondents who said recession is “somewhat likely” over the next year increased somewhat, and the percent believing we are “already in one” dipped. (These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index).
Conference Board – Consumer Confidence Index (02-24-26)
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