U.S. shale oil production has four more years of growth before it peaks in 2028. This is according to a forecast by HSBC—the latest in a string of attempts to predict the fate of the shale patch. It is also the latest to add to the potential for surprise in the shale patch. Just like it happened last year.
In 2023, oil traders kept watching the rig count and kept worrying that oil production was falling because the rig count trended lower for most of the year. And then producers began reporting output figures and the surprises started flooding in. It turned out that well productivity improvements have contributed to a solid increase in output—despite the lower rig count.
“Some expect U.S. shale to peak soon, and OPEC+ hopes this will be the case as it would allow the group to finally unwind its supply cuts,” HSBC analysts wrote, as quoted by Bloomberg. “US shale could grow for the next 3-4 years.”
With regard to OPEC+, this probably means it would have to sit on its spare capacity and maintain the production ceiling for a few more years. It is a prospect that has no doubt been considered by OPEC+ leaders so whatever hopes there may or may not be, plans have been made.
With regard to the U.S. shale industry, supply is, as always, only one-half of the equation. If demand drives prices higher and motivates exploration that makes commercial sense, then these things will happen. For now, most forecasts, which seem to be biased towards a successful energy transition, expect oil demand to be declining. Once again, the forecasters may be in for a surprise.
In any case, however, untapped resources in the shale patch have dwindled—hence the massive merger and acquisition wave that rose in the industry last year and appears set to extend into this year.
“Oil and gas is undergoing a historic consolidation wave comparable to what occurred in the late 1990s and early 2000s, giving rise to the modern supermajors,” Andrew Dittmar, Enverus senior vice president, said in January.
“After a decade of lowered investment in exploration and with the major U.S. shale plays largely defined, M&A has become the preferred tool to replace declining reserves and secure longevity in these companies’ profitable upstream businesses,” Dittmar added at the time.
Yet mergers and acquisitions cannot last forever. And neither can the rate of well productivity that boosted U.S. oil production to the highest ever. Enverus again sounded the alarm in April, reporting that oil recovery rates per foot of horizontal well drilled had declined by 15% between 2020 and 2023. The reason: too many wells getting drilled too close together, affecting reservoir pressure and resulting in lower recovery rates.
The industry is looking for ways around this and finding them—at a cost. Longer wells can improve recovery rates but cost more to drill. A technique dubbed simul-fracking, which involves the drilling of multiple wells and then fracking them all together has also shown promise but it’s not cheap.
It appears that the U.S. shale boom has moved on to its next stage where a mature industry focuses on lowering costs while preserving production rates and possibly increasing them if and when it makes business sense. In such a context, the matter of when production peaks is not all that relevant, either for OPEC+ or U.S. shale itself. What’s relevant is how long the production plateau will continue before the decline begins. And that might take a bit longer than four years, however eager some forecasters may be to see all oil go.
