(by Paul Vivian and Rick Preckel, www.prestonpipe.com) Market Monitor – No change to the drilling forecast and a relatively unchanged project environment (from our November issue) suggests that we leave the previous line pipe forecast intact for this Report. As in OCTG, we have adjusted the supply makeup to be reflective of more protectionist trade policies, but it is unclear how the reset of the S232 will end up due to the influences on domestic HRB pricing. The forecast also includes just over 60k tons for carbon capture pipelines. Newly confirmed US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright granted a new export authorization for the Commonwealth LNG project proposed for Cameron Parish, Louisiana the first major US liquefied natural gas (LNG) project to receive an export authorization for non-free trade agreement (FTA) countries since the Biden-Harris administration’s freeze on LNG export permit approvals was lifted. Commonwealth is awaiting a FERC Final Order and DOE final authorization and anticipates reaching an FID in September. Import Supply – The December line pipe import total was 81,520 tons which was about 17,000 tons below the license tally published last month. January licenses ended the month at 135,695 tons which was about 30,000 tons below the projection from January’s Report. As an aside, about 53,600 of those tons have a diameter >16”. Through February 18th, line pipe licenses totaled just under 46,000 tons leading to a linear forecast of about 77,000 tons. Carbon ERW, over 4 ½”, not over 16”, was the import category with the highest volume for December at 20,983 tons with a CIF value of $1,078/ton. This represents a decrease of $27/ton from the prior month.
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