(by Paul Vivian and Rick Preckel, www.prestonpipe.com) Market Monitor – Several pipeline projects have received the go ahead from their respective sponsors. These include Energy Transfer’s Hugh Brinson (formerly Warrior) pipeline and Boardwalk/Gulf South’s Kosci Junction pipeline. The Hugh Brinson project is a two phase project. The first is a 400 mile, 42” pipeline with a capacity of 1.5 bcf/d that will connect the Waha area to Maypearl, Texas which is just south of the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Here it will connect to Energy Transfer’s existing pipeline network. Phase 2 includes a 42 mile 36” front end lateral connecting processing plants in Midland and Martin counties to the mainline. Phase 2 also includes a compression expansion boosting capacity to 2.2 bcf/d. The Kosci Junction project includes a 110 mile 36” pipeline connection moving gas supplies from the Haynesville, Marcellus, Utica, and Fayetteville basins to Gulf South’s existing system and new interconnects. The capacity of the new line is 1.16 bcf/d but could be expanded to 1.58 bcf/d. Boardwalk expects to file with FERC in 2025 and to have the pipeline operational by 1H2029. The study that was the driver for the LNG export permit pause resulted in a report that was released on December 17. The crux of the Report is that while US natural gas supply is sufficient to meet domestic and export demand, an unconstrained LNG export scenario would raise domestic prices by 31% by 2050 and contribute to climate change. Incoming President Trump has promised to immediately end the moratorium on new LNG export permits. Import Supply – The October line pipe import total was 75,036 tons which was about 10% above the license total published last month. November licenses ended the month at 83,784 tons representing a significant deficit to the license projection published last month which we predicted would be too high. Through December 16th, line pipe licenses totaled 59,354 tons leading to a linear forecast of about 113,000 tons. We believe this projection is high as well. Carbon ERW, over 4 ½”, not over 16”, was the import category with the highest volume for September at 23,565 tons with a CIF value of $1,129/ton. This represents an increase of $19/ton from last month.
Preston Pipe Report – December 2024
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