Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.3 percent. The upward revision primarily reflected a downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and government spending. These revisions were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending (refer to “Updates to GDP”).The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports increased. Compared to the fourth quarter, the deceleration in real GDP primarily reflected decelerations in consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending, and a downturn in federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by an acceleration in residential fixed investment. Imports accelerated. Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.5 percent at an annual rate, or $312.2 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $28.27 trillion, an upward revision of $13.2 billion from the previous estimate (tables 1 and 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file on BEA’s website. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.1 percent in the first quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate (table 4). The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.4 percent, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.7 percent, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point. Personal Income – Current-dollar personal income increased $396.8 billion in the first quarter, a downward revision of $7.7 billion from the previous estimate. The increase primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries) and personal current transfer receipts (led by government social benefits to persons). Disposable personal income increased $240.2 billion, or 4.8 percent, in the first quarter, a downward revision of $26.6 billion from the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income increased 1.3 percent, a downward revision of 0.6 percentage point. Personal saving was $777.3 billion in the first quarter, a downward revision of $19.3 billion from the previous estimate. The personal saving rate personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.8 percent in the first quarter, the same as the previous estimate. Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits – Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.3 percent in the first quarter, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point from the previous estimate. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, the same as the previous estimate. Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $47.1 billion in the first quarter, a downward revision of $26.0 billion from the previous estimate. Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $65.0 billion in the first quarter, a downward revision of $8.7 billion from the previous estimate. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $114.5 billion, a downward revision of $0.3 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $2.3 billion, a downward revision of $17.0 billion. In the first quarter, receipts increased $25.7 billion, and payments increased $23.4 billion. Updates to GDP – With the third estimate, a downward revision to imports and upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, exports, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. For more information, refer to the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the “Additional Information” section that follows.
Gross Domestic Product – 1st quarter (Third Estimate) (06-27-24)
- Economic Monthly Summaries, Gross Domestic Product
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