The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.8 percent in October 2023 to 103.9 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.7 percent in September. The LEI contracted by 3.3 percent over the six-month period between April and October 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.5 percent contraction over the previous six months (October 2022 to April 2023). “The US LEI trajectory remained negative, and its six- and twelve-month growth rates also held in negative territory in October,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Among the leading indicators, deteriorating consumers’ expectations for business conditions, lower ISM® Index of New Orders, falling equities, and tighter credit conditions drove the index’s most recent decline. After a pause in September, the LEI resumed signaling recession in the near term. The Conference Board expects elevated inflation, high interest rates, and contracting consumer spending—due to depleting pandemic saving and mandatory student loan repayments—to tip the US economy into a very short recession. We forecast that real GDP will expand by just 0.8 percent in 2024.” The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in October 2023 at 110.8 (2016=100), but the index is below its September’s level after a downward revision. The CEI is now up 0.9 percent over the six-month period between April and October 2023, compared to 0.4 percent growth over the previous six months. The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Three out of four components of the index advanced in October, with personal income less transfer payments being the strongest contributor, followed by manufacturing and trade sales and employees on nonagricultural payroll. Industrial production was the only negative contributor in the month. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. improved by 0.1 percent in October 2023 to 118.6 (2016 = 100), following the same rate of increase as in September. The LAG is up slightly by 0.3 percent over the six-month period from April to October 2023, down three-fold from its 0.9 percent growth over the previous six months.
Conference Board – Leading Economic Index (11-20-23)
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