In this week’s preview of what to watch in oil and gas markets, one of Rigzone’s regular energy prognosticators flags the Russia-Ukraine situation and the state of inventories. Read on below to find out the specifics.
Rigzone: What developments/trends will you be on the lookout for this week?
Frederick J. Lawrence, Conference Speaker and ex-Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA) Chief Economist: Russia-Ukraine takes top billing as usual, but I would take a closer look at the state of inventories as we try to plan ahead with our economic growth outlooks and the disparate manner in which countries will emerge from the pandemic. The EIA released data recently for the week ending 2/4/2022 and we note that commercial oil stocks are at 410.4 million barrels vs. 469 million barrels a year ago – down 12.5 percent. The SPR is down by 7.9 percent due to recent drawdowns.
Gasoline was down 3.1 percent, but distillate is key at 121.8 million barrels vs. 161.1 million barrels – a drop of 24.4 percent. The price of gasoline is important as we get closer to the midterms, but the global distillate/diesel stocks seem more acute. Cushing is rather important with stocks at 27.7 million barrels compared to 48 million barrels a year ago. Natural gas inventories are down 14.5 percent from a year ago at 2,323 billion cubic feet. The IEA notes that OECD stocks fell by 6.1 million barrels to a level of 2,756 million barrels, which is down 354 million barrels from a year ago and at the lowest level in seven years. Preliminary December data shows a drop of 45 million barrels.
Inventories will be important to watch as markets are digesting supply chain issues, supply question marks and geopolitical flashpoints.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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