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Natural Gas Producers Signal No Intention On Increasing Production (And What This Means For The Natural Gas Market)

Natural Gas Producers Signal No Intention On Increasing Production (And What This Means For The Natural Gas Market)

Summary

Natural gas producers are soft guiding flat production in 2021.

This bodes very well for natural gas fundamentals as the deficit of ~5 Bcf/d will persist in 2021.

Even if this winter proves to be much warmer than normal, the inherent deficit in the market would prevent storage from building back up for the 2021/2022 winter.

This means that the only way for the US natural gas market to balance itself out will be to cause LNG exports to shut-in again. Depending on global LNG market, this could imply significantly higher Henry Hub prices to force the shut-ins.

Stay bullish producers as the supply deficit is set to overwhelm the market. In the near term, we are staying on the sidelines awaiting the technical correction and the onslaught of near-term bearish weather trends. We will give an update when we do go back long EQT.

Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of HFI Research get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Get started today »

Welcome to the what does it mean edition of Natural Gas Daily!

Maintenance capital and generating free cash flow, those are two terms you didn’t hear from US shale gas producers during the boom years from 2012 to 2018. Despite natural gas prices averaging horrendous prices during those years, shale gas producers were the first ones to pioneer the mantra of “grow at any cost” and it led inevitably to a massive gas glut that started in 2012 and lasted until today.

Now with 2021 on the horizon and Henry Hub gas curve averaging well above $3/MMBtu, the entire investment community is fixated on just what these shale gas producers will do? Between all the publicly traded natural gas producers, total production volume represents ~20% of US gas production. So this soft capex guidance is very meaningful for the gas balance going forward.

So where do we stand today?

EQT (NYSE:EQT) already has noted that they will be looking to keep production flat.

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Cabot (NYSE:COG) basically said the same thing where they will be targeting a maintenance capex program.

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Then there are producers like Antero (AR), infamous for growing production at any cost from 2012 to 2017, and even guys like this are doing a complete 180.

5006891 16040852157850273

Range Resources (NYSE:RRC), which had a conference call today, soft guided the same thing. Maintenance capital and free cash flow will be their priority.

5006891 16046907620527353

So now if you match up the sentiment in the shale gas patch with what we are already seeing for US gas production and the incoming fundamental deficit, the outlook starts to get really bullish.

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Given the low levels of activity today, we have US gas production bottoming out around ~84 to ~86 Bcf/d by March 2021. If these soft guidance figures are of any substance, then we have on our hands at best ~86 to ~88 Bcf/d average throughout 2021.

5006891 16046909228584855

And with the natural gas market balance solidly in the deficit at ~4.03 Bcf/d even with bearish weather on the horizon, it’s pretty much an impossible task to fill up storage in 2021. Here’s an illustration. Hypothetically, even if we end winter with very warm weather and storage ends April around ~1.6 Tcf, here’s where we will be by November 2021.

5006891 1604085577208007

Now the only way to avoid this forecast is for US natural gas prices to surge to the point of shutting in LNG, which means the entire 2021 curve has to be closer to $4/MMBtu.

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Source: CME, HFI Research

This, in our view, is the only reasonable way we can have enough gas in storage by November 2021. Now if the global LNG market improves even more throughout the winter, then that gas curve will have to go even higher.

All in all, given the current guidance from NG producers, we don’t see how natural gas market balance can survive 2021 without forcing LNG economics to go negative, which means Henry Hub has to increase to compensate for it.

Stay bullish producers as the supply deficit is set to overwhelm the market. In the near term, we are staying on the sidelines awaiting the technical correction and the onslaught of near-term bearish weather trends. We will give an update when we do go back long EQT.

Read it from seekingalpha – Photo by Pixabay from Pexels

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  • A statement by you that you have a good faith belief that the disputed use is not authorized by the copyright owner, its agent, or the law;
  • An electronic or physical signature of the person authorized to act on behalf of the owner of the copyright interest; and
  • A statement by you, made under penalty of perjury, that the above information in your Notice is accurate and that you are the copyright owner or authorized to act on the copyright owner’s behalf.
  • For all email submissions please include the subject line: DMCA Takedown Request.

 

Pipe Exchange has adopted a policy of terminating, in appropriate circumstances, accounts of users of the services or the Website who are deemed to have repeatedly uploaded content that infringes the intellectual property rights of others.

 

Copyright Agent:

Pipe Exchange Legal

c/o Pipe Exchange LLC

14025 West Road.
Suite #100
Houston, TX 77041

Phone: + (713) 934-9480

Email: dmca@pipexch.com

DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES

THE WEBSITE AND ITS CONTENT ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE” BASIS, WITHOUT REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND WHATSOEVER. PIPE EXCHANGE, TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING THE WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY, NON-INFRINGEMENT OF THIRD PARTIES RIGHTS, AND THE WARRANTY OF FITNESS FOR PARTICULAR PURPOSE. PIPE EXCHANGE MAKES NO WARRANTIES ABOUT THE ACCURACY, RELIABILITY, COMPLETENESS, OR TIMELINESS OF THE MATERIAL, SERVICES, SOFTWARE, TEXT, GRAPHICS, AND LINKS FOUND OR CONTAINED ON THE WEBSITE. PIPE EXCHANGE DOES NOT WARRANT THAT THE WEBSITE, THE CONTENT, OR ITS SERVERS ARE FREE OF VIRUSES OR OTHER HARMFUL COMPONENTS. YOU UNDERSTAND AND AGREE THAT YOU OBTAIN MATERIAL THROUGH THE USE OF THE WEBSITE AT YOUR OWN DISCRETION AND RISK AND THAT YOU WILL BE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DAMAGES TO YOUR COMPUTER SYSTEM OR LOSS OF DATA THAT RESULTS.

ALL MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THE WEBSITE IS FOR GENERAL INFORMATION ONLY, HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED, HAS NOT BEEN RECOMMENDED BY ANY FEDERAL OR STATE REGULATORY AUTHORITY AND MAY CONTAIN ERRORS OR OMISSIONS OF MATERIAL INFORMATION. THE MATERIAL AND INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THE WEBSITE SHOULD NOT, THEREFORE, BE USED OR RELIED UPON FOR ANY SPECIFIC REASON OR APPLICATION WITHOUT INDEPENDENT COMPETENT PROFESSIONAL EXAMINATION AND VERIFICATION OF ITS ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, SUITABILITY AND APPLICABILITY. ANYONE MAKING USE OF THE MATERIAL DOES SO AT HIS/HER/ITS OWN SOLE AND EXCLUSIVE RISK AND ASSUMES ANY AND ALL ACTUAL OR POTENTIAL DAMAGE OR LIABILITY RESULTING FROM SUCH USE.

LIMITATION OF LIABILITY

IN NO EVENT SHALL PIPE EXCHANGE BE LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES WHATSOEVER (INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES, LOST PROFITS, OR DAMAGES RESULTING FROM LOST DATA OR BUSINESS INTERRUPTION) RESULTING FROM THE USE OR INABILITY TO USE MATERIAL ON THE WEBSITE OR SITES LINKED TO THE WEBSITE, WHETHER BASED ON WARRANTY, CONTRACT, TORT, OR ANY OTHER LEGAL THEORY, AND WHETHER OR NOT PIPE EXCHANGE IS ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.

TERMINATION

Pipe Exchange may terminate, change, suspend or discontinue any aspect of the Website or the Website’s services at any time.  Pipe Exchange may restrict, suspend or terminate your access to the Website and/or its services if we believe you are in breach of our terms and conditions or applicable law, or for any other reason without notice or liability.  Pipe Exchange maintains a policy that provides for the termination in appropriate circumstances of the Website use privileges of users who are repeat infringers of intellectual property rights.

USER’S REMEDY

If you are dissatisfied with any portion of the Website or with any of these Terms of Use, your sole and exclusive remedy is to discontinue using the Website.

GOVERNING LAW AND VENUE

These Terms of Use and the relationship between you and Pipe Exchange shall be governed by the laws of the United States and the State of Florida without regard to its conflict of law provisions. You hereby irrevocably submit and consent to the personal and exclusive jurisdiction of the courts located within Miami-Dade County, Florida and agree that any cause of action that may arise under these Terms of Use and all disputes arising out of or relating to the use of the Website shall be commenced and be heard in the appropriate court in Miami-Dade County, Florida. The failure of Pipe Exchange to exercise or enforce any right or provision of these Terms of Use shall not constitute a waiver of such right or provision. If any provision of these Terms of Use is found by a court of competent jurisdiction to be invalid, the parties nevertheless agree that the court should endeavor to give effect to the parties’ intentions as reflected in the provision, and the other provisions of these Terms of Use remain in full force and effect. 

QUESTIONS ABOUT TERMS OF USE

If you have any questions regarding these Terms of Use, please either:

Send an email to sales@pipexch.com

Write to Pipe Exchange at the following address:

14025 West Road

Suite 100

Houston, TX 77041