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Is It The Right Time To Buy Into The Oil Price Rally?

Is It The Right Time To Buy Into The Oil Price Rally?

After a heavy dose of doom and gloom, the oil markets seem to be finally getting their footing back. Crude prices have almost fully retraced their historic nosedive three weeks ago, with WTI crude for June delivery following up Monday’s 22% rally with a 13.5% gain at 9 am ET on Tuesday. 

The bullishness has been triggered by the first production cuts by OPEC+ coming online on Monday. At the same time, scores of independent producers (IOCs) in the U.S., Canada, and Norway have announced their own voluntary cutbacks. Meanwhile, oil demand appears to be slowly creeping back, though the jury is out as to how long the climb back to the top is going to be. 

Alarmingly, oil punters, bottom hunters, and speculators have doubled down in a buying frenzy that belies the enormous risks that underpin this volatile and fickle market.

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Source: MarketWatch

The USO Enigma

The country’s largest oil fund, United States Oil Fund LP (NYSEARCA: USO), has once again emerged as the investor favorite to play the rebound, with the ETF’s long positions tripling just weeks after the fateful crash.

USO is a long-only crude oil exchange-traded fund (ETF) with a mandate to “…to track the daily changes in percentage terms of its shares’ NAV to reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of the spot price of light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the daily changes in price of USO’s Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, less USO’s expenses.” 

Investors love the ETF mainly due to its high liquidity (average daily volume of 17.5 million shares). They buy the shares believing them to be a good proxy for oil prices.

The big problem is that whereas the USO normally does a fairly good job of tracking spot prices, it can be a disaster under certain market conditions. Oil funds like USO operate quite differently from other ETFs or mutual funds which simply hold stocks or bonds because they invest in oil futures contracts. When these contracts expire, USO is obligated to either take physical delivery of the millions of barrels (a single futures contract represents 1,000 barrels of crude) to Cushing, Oklahoma, or offset the trade before the expiration. 

Related: Could Renewable Spending Solve The Unemployment Crisis In Oil?

The USO avoids taking delivery of physical oil by holding the contracts until two weeks before their expiration before selling the old contract and buying another short-term contract in its place. For example, USO sold the ill-fated May contract in the middle of April and bought a June contract in its place.

But rolling its contracts this way when the market is in contango (spot or current price is lower than the futures price)–as is currently the situation–effectively means that the fund is consistently buying high and selling low thus losing money on its trades. This can lead to USO significantly underperforming the spot oil market, even when oil is enjoying a nice rally.

But that’s only part of the problem.

USO recently announced a significant change to its trading strategy by rotating out of short-term contracts into longer-term ones. Instead of being 100% invested in the closest month contract, the fund has now diversified its holdings as follows:

  • ~30% in the July 2020 contract
  • ~15% in the August 2020 contract
  • ~15% in the September 2020 contract
  • ~15% in the October 2020 contract
  • ~15% in the December 2020 contract
  • ~10% in the June 2021 contract

With longer-term oil contract prices typically being less volatile than shorter-term ones, even a sharp oil price rally of, say, $20/barrel would lead to a much smaller move by USO. Further, the roll costs of this diversification drive are already negatively affecting the fund’s performance with the price flat since announcing the changes compared to a 60% surge by oil prices.

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Source: ETF Focus

Finally, USO recently did a 1 for 8 reverse share split, a move that hardly inspires confidence in long-term investors.

Playing the oil price rebound

That said, ETFs can be a good way to play a rebounding sector without having to pick one or two stocks. Here are three worth a consideration:

  • iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (IEO)

This is an exchange-traded fund that invests in oil and gas companies specifically focused on exploration and production. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC), Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VAL), and Phillips66 (NYSE:PSX) are among its ten largest holdings. 

IEO has significantly outperformed its bigger brethren, XOP, over the past three-year and one-year timeframes and also outperformed it during the last big oil rally of 2016-2018. The fund has surged nearly 73% since its March 18 low and pushing above its 50-day moving average for the first time this year. 

  • Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)

The XLE is the U.S. energy market closest proxy, with holdings that include virtually all the sector’s heavyweights: ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Phillips 66, Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB), etc. As big oil stocks go, so goes the XLE, with the fund up nearly 60% since the market bottom.

  • Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2x Shares ETF (GUSH)

Highly leveraged ETFs are some of the riskiest instruments to play a market as volatile as the current oil market due to the decay caused by excessive volatility. 

That’s why GUSH, an ETF that sought to return 300% of the daily performance of XOP, nearly wiped out investors this year. However, that changed in March when its operator, Direxion, lowered its leverage from 3x to 2x. GUSH ETF now seems to have much lower decay associated and has been tracking XOP’s advances pretty accurately, gaining 184% since the March 31 change vs. 72% increase by XOP. Still, only investors who can withstand the attendant stomach-churning volatility need apply.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

Read it from OilPrice – Photo as posted on OilPrice

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PIPE EXCHANGE PRIVACY POLICY

Last Updated: August 2019

 

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PIPE EXCHANGE TERMS OF USE

Last updated: August 2019

Welcome to https://pipexch.com/Pipe Exchange (the “Website”). The Website is owned and operated by Pipe Exchange LLCPipe ExchangePipe Exchange including its related companies, affiliates and subsidiaries (collectively “Pipe Exchange,” “we,” “us,” “our”). We make the Website available to you, subject to the following Terms of Use (these “Terms of Use”). PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING TERMS OF USE CAREFULLY BEFORE USING THE WEBSITE. By using the Website, you agree to these Terms of Use and agree they create a legally binding agreement between you and Pipe Exchange. If you do not agree to these Terms of Use, you may not use the Website. These Terms of Use are effective unless and until terminated by Pipe Exchange.

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In the course of your use of the Website, you may be asked to provide certain personalized information to us (such information referred to hereinafter as “User Information”).  Our information collection and use policies with respect to the privacy of such User Information are set forth in the Website’s Privacy Policy which is incorporated herein by reference for all purposes.  You acknowledge and agree that you are solely responsible for the accuracy and content of User Information, and you agree to keep it up to date. 

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Any commercial distribution, publishing or exploitation of the Website, or any content, code, data or materials on the Website, is strictly prohibited unless you have received the express prior permission of Pipe Exchange or the applicable rights holder.  You may not otherwise download, display, copy, reproduce, distribute, modify, perform, transfer, create derivative works from, sell or otherwise exploit any content, code, data or materials on the Website.  If you make other use of the Website, or the content, code, data or materials thereon, except as otherwise provided above, you may violate copyright and other laws of the United States, other countries, as well as applicable state laws and may be subject to liability for such unauthorized use.  Pipe Exchange will aggressively enforce its intellectual property rights to the fullest extent of the law, including the seeking of criminal prosecution.

SECURITY

You are prohibited from violating, or attempting to violate the security of the Website. Any such violations may result in criminal and civil liabilities to you.  You warrant and agree that, while using the Website and the various services and features offered on or through the Website, you shall not: (a) impersonate any person or entity or misrepresent your affiliation with any other person or entity; (b) insert your own or a third party’s advertising, branding or other promotional content into any of the Website’s content, materials or services, or use, redistribute, republish or exploit such content or service for any further commercial or promotional purposes or take any action that would constitute or could be interpreted as an endorsement or sponsorship by Pipe Exchange of any third party site, content, information or other materials, or in any manner that would violate the terms and conditions of any such third party sites; (c) attempt to probe, scan, or test the vulnerability of any system or network; or (d) attempt to gain unauthorized access to data not intended for you and/or other computer systems through the Website.  You shall not: (i) engage in spidering, “screen scraping,” “database scraping,” harvesting of e-mail addresses, wireless addresses or other contact or personal information, or any other automatic means of accessing, logging-in or registering on the Website or for any services or features offered on or through the Website, or obtaining lists of users or obtaining or accessing other information or features on, from or through the Website or the services offered on or through the Website, including, without limitation, any information residing on any server or database connected to the Website or any services offered on or through the Website; (ii) obtain or attempt to obtain unauthorized access to computer systems, materials, information or any services made available on or through the Website through any means; (iii) use the Website or the services made available on or through the Website in any manner with the intent to interrupt, damage, disable, overburden, or impair the Website or such services, including, without limitation, sending mass unsolicited messages or “flooding,” “spamming,” or “crashing” any systems; (iv) use the Website or the Website’s services or features in violation of Pipe Exchange’s or any third party’s intellectual property or other proprietary or legal rights; or (v) use the Website or the Website’s services in violation of any applicable law.  You further agree that you may not attempt (or encourage or support anyone else’s attempt) to circumvent, reverse engineer, decrypt, or otherwise alter or interfere with the Website or the Website’s services, or any content thereof, or make unauthorized use thereof.  You agree that you will not use the Website in any manner that could damage, disable, overburden, or impair the Website or interfere with any other party’s use and enjoyment of the Website. You may not obtain or attempt to obtain any materials or information through any means not intentionally made publicly available or provided for through the Website. Pipe Exchange will investigate any alleged violations and will cooperate with law enforcement agencies in their investigations.

THIRD-PARTY CONTENT

Some of the information and material available through the Website are provided to Pipe Exchange by third parties (“Third-Party Material”). In some instances, the source of the Third-Party Material is identified. Third-Party Material is provided for your convenience only and Pipe Exchange does not endorse these materials or the parties who supply them to us. Pipe Exchange does not warrant or represent that these Third-Party Materials are current, accurate or reliable.

COPYRIGHT AGENT

We respect the intellectual property rights of others, and require that the people who use the Website do the same.  If you believe that your work has been copied in a way that constitutes copyright infringement, please forward the following information to Pipe Exchange’s Copyright Agent, designated as such pursuant to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, 17 U.S.C. § 512(c)(2), named below:

  • Your address, telephone number, and email address;
  • A description of the copyrighted work that you claim has been infringed;
  • A description of where the alleged infringing material is located;
  • A statement by you that you have a good faith belief that the disputed use is not authorized by the copyright owner, its agent, or the law;
  • An electronic or physical signature of the person authorized to act on behalf of the owner of the copyright interest; and
  • A statement by you, made under penalty of perjury, that the above information in your Notice is accurate and that you are the copyright owner or authorized to act on the copyright owner’s behalf.
  • For all email submissions please include the subject line: DMCA Takedown Request.

 

Pipe Exchange has adopted a policy of terminating, in appropriate circumstances, accounts of users of the services or the Website who are deemed to have repeatedly uploaded content that infringes the intellectual property rights of others.

 

Copyright Agent:

Pipe Exchange Legal

c/o Pipe Exchange LLC

14025 West Road.
Suite #100
Houston, TX 77041

Phone: + (713) 934-9480

Email: dmca@pipexch.com

DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES

THE WEBSITE AND ITS CONTENT ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE” BASIS, WITHOUT REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND WHATSOEVER. PIPE EXCHANGE, TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING THE WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY, NON-INFRINGEMENT OF THIRD PARTIES RIGHTS, AND THE WARRANTY OF FITNESS FOR PARTICULAR PURPOSE. PIPE EXCHANGE MAKES NO WARRANTIES ABOUT THE ACCURACY, RELIABILITY, COMPLETENESS, OR TIMELINESS OF THE MATERIAL, SERVICES, SOFTWARE, TEXT, GRAPHICS, AND LINKS FOUND OR CONTAINED ON THE WEBSITE. PIPE EXCHANGE DOES NOT WARRANT THAT THE WEBSITE, THE CONTENT, OR ITS SERVERS ARE FREE OF VIRUSES OR OTHER HARMFUL COMPONENTS. YOU UNDERSTAND AND AGREE THAT YOU OBTAIN MATERIAL THROUGH THE USE OF THE WEBSITE AT YOUR OWN DISCRETION AND RISK AND THAT YOU WILL BE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DAMAGES TO YOUR COMPUTER SYSTEM OR LOSS OF DATA THAT RESULTS.

ALL MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THE WEBSITE IS FOR GENERAL INFORMATION ONLY, HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED, HAS NOT BEEN RECOMMENDED BY ANY FEDERAL OR STATE REGULATORY AUTHORITY AND MAY CONTAIN ERRORS OR OMISSIONS OF MATERIAL INFORMATION. THE MATERIAL AND INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THE WEBSITE SHOULD NOT, THEREFORE, BE USED OR RELIED UPON FOR ANY SPECIFIC REASON OR APPLICATION WITHOUT INDEPENDENT COMPETENT PROFESSIONAL EXAMINATION AND VERIFICATION OF ITS ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, SUITABILITY AND APPLICABILITY. ANYONE MAKING USE OF THE MATERIAL DOES SO AT HIS/HER/ITS OWN SOLE AND EXCLUSIVE RISK AND ASSUMES ANY AND ALL ACTUAL OR POTENTIAL DAMAGE OR LIABILITY RESULTING FROM SUCH USE.

LIMITATION OF LIABILITY

IN NO EVENT SHALL PIPE EXCHANGE BE LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES WHATSOEVER (INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES, LOST PROFITS, OR DAMAGES RESULTING FROM LOST DATA OR BUSINESS INTERRUPTION) RESULTING FROM THE USE OR INABILITY TO USE MATERIAL ON THE WEBSITE OR SITES LINKED TO THE WEBSITE, WHETHER BASED ON WARRANTY, CONTRACT, TORT, OR ANY OTHER LEGAL THEORY, AND WHETHER OR NOT PIPE EXCHANGE IS ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.

TERMINATION

Pipe Exchange may terminate, change, suspend or discontinue any aspect of the Website or the Website’s services at any time.  Pipe Exchange may restrict, suspend or terminate your access to the Website and/or its services if we believe you are in breach of our terms and conditions or applicable law, or for any other reason without notice or liability.  Pipe Exchange maintains a policy that provides for the termination in appropriate circumstances of the Website use privileges of users who are repeat infringers of intellectual property rights.

USER’S REMEDY

If you are dissatisfied with any portion of the Website or with any of these Terms of Use, your sole and exclusive remedy is to discontinue using the Website.

GOVERNING LAW AND VENUE

These Terms of Use and the relationship between you and Pipe Exchange shall be governed by the laws of the United States and the State of Florida without regard to its conflict of law provisions. You hereby irrevocably submit and consent to the personal and exclusive jurisdiction of the courts located within Miami-Dade County, Florida and agree that any cause of action that may arise under these Terms of Use and all disputes arising out of or relating to the use of the Website shall be commenced and be heard in the appropriate court in Miami-Dade County, Florida. The failure of Pipe Exchange to exercise or enforce any right or provision of these Terms of Use shall not constitute a waiver of such right or provision. If any provision of these Terms of Use is found by a court of competent jurisdiction to be invalid, the parties nevertheless agree that the court should endeavor to give effect to the parties’ intentions as reflected in the provision, and the other provisions of these Terms of Use remain in full force and effect. 

QUESTIONS ABOUT TERMS OF USE

If you have any questions regarding these Terms of Use, please either:

Send an email to sales@pipexch.com

Write to Pipe Exchange at the following address:

14025 West Road

Suite 100

Houston, TX 77041