(by Paul Vivian and Rick Preckel, www.prestonpipe.com) Market Monitor: Given the cuts to capex resulting from the oil price crash, we expect changes in small diameter line pipe demand. In this segment, small diameter (<=16”) demand has shifted as drilling has evolved. In the period of 2005 – 2009, there were about 83 tons of small diameter line shipped per rig running. During this period, only about 24% of the rigs, on average, were drilling horizontally. More wells but smaller diameters. In the period from 2010-2014, there were about 101 tons of small diameter line pipe shipped per rig and about 60% of the rigs, on average, were drilling horizontally. Finally, from 2015 through the current period, about 150 tons of small diameter line pipe was shipped, per rig, and about 83% of rigs were drilling horizontally. Despite the move to horizontal where OCTG laterals play the role played by gathering lines historically, the shift to higher production per rig/well, as well as pad drilling, results in larger diameters and heavier walls within that size range. Based on our analysis, we’ve had some periods of build and liquidation from January 2017 through mid-2019 which resulted in an inventory overhang of about 325,000 tons. Since mid-2018, we’ve worked off about 275,000 tons leaving an excess from the current cycle of about 50,000 tons. We are currently shipping at a rate below what the current rig count would support. When upstream activity begins to drop, commensurate with announced capex cuts, current shipping rates would result in some inventory build. If completions are reduced more than drilling, line pipe shipments could end up higher than what are required. That said, expect further liquidations as activity contracts. Import Supply – The January import total was 71,846 tons which is 10% above the license tally published last month. February import licenses are down suggesting 56,056 tons. The March forecast, with 12 of 22 days summed, is up, at 76,270 tons. The big import item for the month of January 2020 was carbon ERW, over 4 ½” not over 16”, with 15,366 tons. The price was $678/ton, up $34/ton over December.
Preston Pipe Report – The Line Pipe Market Feb 2020
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