(by Paul Vivian and Rick Preckel, www.prestonpipe.com) Market Monitor: With actual data through September, our projection for line pipe shipments in 2019 is 4.3 million tons. While we missed our forecast, this is still shaping up to be a good year. Since the recession, the peak shipment year was 4.8 million tons but the peaks in the other years were all right around the projected shipment level of 2019. The projection consists of about 1.55 million tons of 16 inch and under and 2.75 million tons of greater than 16 inch. For next year, we expect smaller OD shipments to shrink a bit – depending upon what 2H looks like – due to weaker drilling overall. Large diameter shipments, based on projects we expect to be in the construction phase next year, should improve to about 2.9 million tons. Associated, and other gas takeaway, and processing (across all basins) and LNG export facilities have been the more recent drivers of projects and we would expect this to continue. These projects use larger diameter pipe than liquids lines do generally which is partially responsible for the higher tonnage volume. Obviously, project timing has a lot to do with full year total shipments. Import Supply – The September import total was 108,310 tons. October import licenses look set to decline to 77,527 tons. The November forecast, with 8 of 20 days summed, pops back up with early returns showing 188,086 tons. Given the time of year we doubt that volume but do expect a move up. The big import item for the month of September 2019 is alloy, spiral weld over 16”,OD with 22,504 tons. The price is $1,663/ton. Obviously project pipe the YTD price in this category is $1,182/ton with volume at 190,327 so far this year.
Preston Pipe Report – The Line Pipe Market Nov 2019
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