(by Paul Vivian and Rick Preckel, www.prestonpipe.com) Market Monitor: In preparation for our forecast issue next month we are offering the chart at the right. This shows the prior 12 month project announcement statistics, as of August, for 2014 – 2018 both in project count and in miles.
It is worth noting that large diameter line pipe shipments were strong in 2015, after strong project announcements in 2014, weaker in 2016 on weaker market conditions (projects were postponed into 2017 – 2018), and about average in 2017 and 2018P. Based on the uptick in announcements in terms of miles so far in 2018, and the market conditions, the market is poised to perform nicely in 2019. One other interesting point is that project count is down in ’18 even though miles are up. Longer projects are on the table. Import Supply: August imports were 174,823 tons. The September licenses show a further dip to 162,676 tons. The early forecast for October, with 12 of 23 days tallied, is a return to a larger number at 217,761 tons. Project volume can really create wild swings in this data especially when inventory is tight. The top item for the month of August is alloy spiral weld over 16” OD”, at 31,399 tons. The landed price was $893/ton.