The Permian, Marcellus and Utica shale plays will supply 55 percent of the North American gas market by 2030.
That’s the forecast of McKinsey Energy Insights (MEI) in their latest report “North America Gas Outlook to 2030.”
Of the anticipated associated gas growth, about 60 percent is expected to come from the Permian. Currently, the Marcellus and Utica account for 27 percent of total supply in Canada and the U.S. That percentage is expected to grow to 40 percent by 2030.
“Continued improvements in technology have sustained North American gas production. Improved drilling and completions technology have led to enhanced recovery rates and efficiency, while innovations in water procurement and disposal are allowing operators to realize where additional savings can be made,” Yasmine Zhu, senior analyst at MEI said in a statement. “We anticipate that further technical breakthroughs will continue to boost shale gas production and drive down costs, particularly over the next two- to-five years in marginal plays like the Haynesville.”
These developments have substantially lowered breakeven costs, and MEI estimates that North America can produce enough gas to meet more than 25 years of demand below $2.8/mmbtu. If recovering oil prices drive a boom in drilling, increasing oilfield service costs could influence the breakeven price.
