(by Paul Vivian and Rick Preckel, www.prestonpipe.com) Market Monitor: 16” and Under Diameters – There were two duty rate adjustments since the last Report in the line pipe sector – both were preliminary. First was the result of the Antidumping Administrative Review of welded line pipe from Korea which included the following specific preliminary rates: Hyundai Steel, 19.42%; SeAH Steel, 2.3%; All Others, 10.86%. If finalized, these rates will replace the following: Hyundai, 6.23%; SeAH, 2.53%; and All Others, 4.38%. Next, was the result of an Administrative Review in the CVD case against Turkey. This preliminary result has the Borusan group of companies’ rate falling to 0.78% from 152.2%.
16” and under Outside Diameter – When we produced our forecast for 2018 back in October we didn’t comment on the 2017 comparison to the forecast we had produced in November ‘16. Despite a relatively accurate rig count and OCTG forecast, small diameter line pipe shipments for 2017 are now projected to be double what we forecast in November ’16. Why? Despite many inputs into our line pipe forecast model, there have been many moving parts over the last 10 years. First, in the early 2xxxs we had the movement toward horizontal drilling that accelerated over the years. Next, we had the advent of pad drilling and the expansion of the number of wells on a pad. Over the next several reports we are going to attempt to quantify how each of these moves affected demand for small diameter line pipe. Greater than 16” Outside Diameter – The American Line Pipe Producers Association (ALPPA) has filed antidumping and subsidy cases against six countries on welded line pipe >16” OD. The alleged dumping rates are China (138.61%), Canada (53.01%), Turkey (27.83%), S. Korea (23.52%), India (50.55%), and Greece (25.69%). In June 2017 the ALPPA, in a press release, alleged that line pipe supplied by Evraz NA for a Cheniere pipeline project was unfairly traded.
