3 Ways To Play The Coming Oil Boom

3 Ways To Play The Coming Oil Boom

With the double negatives of a demand-culling pandemic and wildly declining sentiment trouncing the oil and gas and pushing companies to record lows, with $30 billion in collective debt, trying to pick a winner in this sector is growing more challenging by the day.  

On the demand front, the IEA has just cut its 2020 oil production forecast by 140,000 bpd to 91.9 million bpd, sending the FTSE 100 index down 73 points, citing the airline industry’s troubles as a key source of weakness in the oil market.

But the megatrend of ESG, or “impact” investing, is the wider threat to the oil and gas industry, with energy stocks finding themselves in the penalty box due to heightened concerns about ever-rising carbon emissions and poor governance. It’s all prompting capital fleeing the sector at an unprecedented rate—even faster due to the pandemic.

The energy sector has been the worst performer in the S&P 500, gaining just 34% over the timeframe according to Refinitiv data. And in the three-month period to June, Big Oil posted massive losses as the demand shock set in.

It’s all about slashing shareholder distributions, racking up debt and writing down assets.

The name of the game now is to find that rare company that’s sitting on something big, cashed up, fully funded, aware of the ESG megatrend, and ready to rage like a bull when oil prices start to bounce back.

Here are three stocks for every risk level, large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap that could buck the trend in the oil comeback: 

Large-Cap: Marathon Oil

Banking on wild sentiment, and the “Robinhood effect”, Marathon is a clear winner, despite depressing Q2 earnings.

The rising tide of retail investors, enshrined by the zero-fee trading app known as Robinhood, love this stock, partly because it’s cheap, but digging a bit deeper, there may be reason to for the upside optimism.

The run on MRO stock began on March 9th and went from just over 10,000 Robinhood users piling in to over 206,000 by June 22nd.

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Yes, it’s far cheaper to own than, say, ExxonMobil, but it’s more than that, even if the average Robinhood user isn’t delving deeply into company earnings reports.

If oil starts climbing again, there’s a fair amount of upside to be found in this $5 stock.

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On August 6th, Marathon released its Q2 earnings report, showing net loss of $750 million or $0.95 per diluted share and an adjusted net loss of $477 million, or $0.60 per diluted share. Net operating cash flow was $9 million ($86 million prior to changes in working capital), and that’s coming up rather short considering that the company spent nearly $140 million on capital projects. 

It’s hardly an earnings report worth banking on. But standards these days are low, and what investors should be looking at is the future cash flow potential here.

Marathon has lowered is capex guidance but also raised its oil production guidance for the full year—and it looks set to generate free cash flow at commodity prices significantly below the “current forward curve”, according to CEO Lee Tillman. In other words, they could end up delivering “oil production in line with 4Q2020 at a free cash flow breakeven of approximately $35/bbl.”

Mid-Cap: Apache Corporation

It’s been an interesting year for Apache investors, to say the least. Late last year, it fired its iconic VP of worldwide exploration, Steven Keenan after disappointing exploration results offshore Suriname, which was supposed to turn into another wild ride like Exxon’s series of discoveries just across the maritime border in Guyana.

Immediately afterwards, it announced a partnership with French Total SA in Suriname, and then suddenly, they hit a major discovery that would put that country on the hydrocarbons map for the first time. Three discoveries later, and Apache is riding high on this venue. 

It helped that right before this, Bank of America Merrill Lunch had told investor that Suriname could end up being a game-changer for Apache, resetting the investment case for the mid-cap one-time shale darling.

It also helped when it came time for Q2 earnings, when Apache reported a 53% drop in revenue year-on year, even though it beat Wall Street expectations by over $43 million. The company also reported quarter-on-quarter production volume declines, with crude volumes sliding 7% and natural gas sliding 8%, though natural gas liquids jumped 12%.

Despite the downturn, Apache still managed to beat other key players in the shale patch—but all eyes are now on Suriname, exactly where they should be. This is history in the making, and the upside is looking good.

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Small-Cap: Recon Energy Africa

Welcome to the final frontier of oil and gas—and the last possible venue left in the world for major onshore discoveries. More to the point, welcome to a venue that has very high potential to become the world’s next big shale producer, and even bigger than Eagle Ford.

That’s exciting enough on its own, but when you consider that a small-cap company owns the entire basin in a supermajor-trumping move, there’s a lot to look at here.

Recon Energy Africa (RECO) holds the license for the entire Kavango Basin—a 8.5-million acre monolith with a potential 18.2 billion barrels of oil-in-place waiting to be proved up to technical recovery.

Recon’s got a four-year exploration license and a 25-year production license once a commercial discovery is made. 

All that is remarkable for a small company with a market cap of around $50 million.  

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Even that isn’t big enough for ReconAfrica, though: On June 11th, they expanded their position, announcing a new petroleum license covering the Eastern extension for the Deep Kavango Basin and a farm-out option agreement. That new license is northwestern Botswana is for 2.45 million acres and is contiguous to its 6.3-million-acre petroleum license in northeast Namibia. 

And now, Recon Africa is fully funded for a 3-well drilling campaign, and acquired its first rig earlier this year. According to the company’s releases they expect to spud the first well in November this year.

They’ve already de-risked extensively by being fully funded to prove the basin up. They managed to raise  over CAD$22 million this year in the most successful oil deal of 2020 on the Canadian Venture exchange, thanks to investors who have grasped the potential of this shale deal.  

For a small-cap company sitting on a massive basin all by itself and fully funded to drill, the possible upside for investors with a bigger risk appetite is significant.

So, ReconAfrica is about to drill—this year. It’s fully funded to do so, and eyes will be all on this stock towards the end of the year when we can expect to start seeing results from its drill program.

But Recon Africa isn’t the only party interested in Africa’s potential as a new frontier. 

Exxon (NYSE:XOM) recently acquired additional 7 million net acres from the Namibian government for a block extending from the shoreline to about 135 miles offshore in water depths up to 13,000 feet, with exploration activities to begin by the end of this year.

What Exxon’s banking on is that Namibia, which once fit together with Brazil, shares the same geology as Brazil’s pre-salt bonanza basins, Santos and Campos, which have already proved enormously resource-rich, according to Deloitte.  When oil demand returns to normal, this will put Exxon in a great position to take an edge over its biggest competitors.

Bonus: Diversified Oil Companies:

As one of the biggest names in energy, Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU) has adopted a number of high-tech solutions for finding, pumping, storing, and delivering its resources. Not only is it big in the oil sector, however, it is a leader in renewable energy. Recently, the company invested $300 million in a wind farm located in Alberta. 

When the rebound in crude prices finally materializes, giants like Suncor are sure to do well out of it. While many of the oil majors have given up on oil sands production – those who focus on technological advancements in the area have a great long-term outlook. And that upside is further amplified by the fact that it is currently looking particularly under-valued compared to its peers.

Total (NYSE:TOT) maintains a ‘big picture’ outlook across all of its endeavors. It is not only aware of the needs that are not being met by a significant portion of the world’s growing population, it is also hyper-aware of the looming climate crisis if changes are not made. In its push to create a better world for all, it has committed to contributing to each of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. From workplace safety and diversity to societal progression and reducing its carbon footprint, Total is checking all of the boxes that the next generation of investors hold close to their hearts.

By. Mick Cantle

**IMPORTANT! BY READING OUR CONTENT YOU EXPLICITLY AGREE TO THE FOLLOWING. PLEASE READ CAREFULLY**

Forward-Looking Statements. Statements contained in this document that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements that involve various risks and uncertainty affecting the business of Recon. All estimates and statements with respect to Recon’s operations, its plans and projections, size of potential oil reserves, comparisons to other oil producing fields, oil prices, recoverable oil, production targets, production and other operating costs and likelihood of oil recoverability are forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws and necessarily involve risks and uncertainties including, without limitation: risks associated with oil and gas exploration, development, exploitation and production, geological risks, marketing and transportation, availability of adequate funding, volatility of commodity prices, imprecision of reserve and resource estimates, environmental risks, competition from other producers, government regulation, dates of commencement of production and changes in the regulatory and taxation environment. Actual results may vary materially from the information provided in this document, and there is no representation that the actual results realized in the future will be the same in whole or in part as those presented herein. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements are also set forth in filings that Recon and its technical analysts have made, We undertake no obligation, except as otherwise required by law, to update these forward-looking statements except as required by law.

Exploration for hydrocarbons is a speculative venture necessarily involving substantial risk. Recon’s future success will depend on its ability to develop its current properties and on its ability to discover resources that are capable of commercial production. However, there is no assurance that Recon’s future exploration and development efforts will result in the discovery or development of commercial accumulations of oil and natural gas. In addition, even if hydrocarbons are discovered, the costs of extracting and delivering the hydrocarbons to market and variations in the market price may render uneconomic any discovered deposit. Geological conditions are variable and unpredictable. Even if production is commenced from a well, the quantity of hydrocarbons produced inevitably will decline over time, and production may be adversely affected or may have to be terminated altogether if Recon encounters unforeseen geological conditions. Adverse climatic conditions at such properties may also hinder Recon’s ability to carry on exploration or production activities continuously throughout any given year.

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ADVERTISEMENT. This communication is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Oilprice.com, Advanced Media Solutions Ltd, and their owners, managers, employees, and assigns (collectively “the Company”) may in the future be paid by Recon to disseminate future communications if this communication proves effective. In this case the Company has not been paid for this article. But the potential for future compensation is a major conflict with our ability to be unbiased, more specifically:

This communication is for entertainment purposes only. Never invest purely based on our communication. We have not been compensated but may in the future be compensated to conduct investor awareness advertising and marketing for TSXV:RECO. Therefore, this communication should be viewed as a commercial advertisement only. We have not investigated the background of the company. Frequently companies profiled in our alerts experience a large increase in volume and share price during the course of investor awareness marketing, which often end as soon as the investor awareness marketing ceases. The information in our communications and on our website has not been independently verified and is not guaranteed to be correct.

SHARE OWNERSHIP. The owner of Oilprice.com owns shares of this featured company and therefore has an additional incentive to see the featured company’s stock perform well. The owner of Oilprice.com will not notify the market when it decides to buy more or sell shares of this issuer in the market. The owner of Oilprice.com will be buying and selling shares of this issuer for its own profit. This is why we stress that you conduct extensive due diligence as well as seek the advice of your financial advisor or a registered broker-dealer before investing in any securities. 

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Read it from Oilprice.com – Photo as seen on Oilprice.com

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CHANGES TO TERMS OF USE

Pipe Exchange reserves the right, at any time, to modify, amend, alter or update these Terms of Use. These changes will be effective as of the date we post the revised version. By continuing to use the Website following such modifications, amendments, alterations or updates, you agree to be bound by such modifications, amendments, alterations or updates. Therefore, you should periodically visit this page to review our most current Terms of Use.

You may access the current version of these Terms of Use at any time by clicking on the link marked “Terms of Use” at the bottom of each page of the Website.

PRIVACY POLICY

In the course of your use of the Website, you may be asked to provide certain personalized information to us (such information referred to hereinafter as “User Information”).  Our information collection and use policies with respect to the privacy of such User Information are set forth in the Website’s Privacy Policy which is incorporated herein by reference for all purposes.  You acknowledge and agree that you are solely responsible for the accuracy and content of User Information, and you agree to keep it up to date. 

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS

Pipe Exchange respects the intellectual property rights of others. As between you and Pipe Exchange, and except any User Information which you provide, all rights, title and interests in the Website, including all the content (including, for example, audio, photographs, illustrations, graphics, other visuals, video, copy, software, etc.), code, data and materials thereon, the look and feel, design and organization of the Website, and the compilation of the content, code, data and materials on the Website, including but not limited to any copyrights, trademark rights, patent rights, database rights, moral rights, sui generis rights and other intellectual property and proprietary rights therein (collectively the “Content”) are owned by Pipe Exchange or by third parties who have licensed or provided their Content to us. The Website is protected under Trademarks (as defined below), copyright, patent, trade secret and other intellectual property rights laws, and your use of the Website does not grant to you ownership of any Content you may access on the Website. You are prohibited from using the Website to infringe or violate any intellectual property rights. Pipe Exchange may terminate your right to access the Website if it believes you are using the Website in a manner that infringes the copyright, trademark, patent or other intellectual property rights of another.

We may investigate occurrences that may involve violations of the security of the Services or of the law and we may involve, and cooperate with, law enforcement authorities in prosecuting users who are involved in such violations.

The trademarks, logos, service marks and trade names (collectively the “Trademarks”) displayed on the Website or on content available through the Website are registered and unregistered Trademarks of ours and others and may not be used unless authorized by the trademark owner.  All Trademarks not owned by us that appear on the Website or on or through the Website’s services, if any, are the property of their respective owners.  Nothing contained on the Website should be construed as granting, by implication, estoppel, or otherwise, any license or right to use any Trademark displayed on the Website without our written permission or that of the third-party rights holder.  Your misuse of the Trademarks displayed on the Website is strictly prohibited.  Pipe Exchange will aggressively enforce its Trademark rights to the fullest extent of the law, including the seeking of criminal prosecution.

PERSONAL USE ONLY

The Website and the Content are intended for your personal use.  You may access and view the content on the Website via your computer or other internet compatible device, and make single copies or prints of the content on the Website for your personal, internal use only.   The Website and the services offered on or through the Website, including Pipe Exchange’s e-publication and any other content and materials thereon, are only for your personal, non-commercial use. Except as otherwise provided on the Website, you may not modify, copy, distribute, transmit, display, perform, reproduce, publish, license, sell, create derivative works from, transfer, or sell any information, software, products or services obtained from the Website. Use of the Website to sell a product or service, or to increase traffic to your website for commercial reasons, such as advertising sales is expressly forbidden.

PROHIBITED USE

Any commercial distribution, publishing or exploitation of the Website, or any content, code, data or materials on the Website, is strictly prohibited unless you have received the express prior permission of Pipe Exchange or the applicable rights holder.  You may not otherwise download, display, copy, reproduce, distribute, modify, perform, transfer, create derivative works from, sell or otherwise exploit any content, code, data or materials on the Website.  If you make other use of the Website, or the content, code, data or materials thereon, except as otherwise provided above, you may violate copyright and other laws of the United States, other countries, as well as applicable state laws and may be subject to liability for such unauthorized use.  Pipe Exchange will aggressively enforce its intellectual property rights to the fullest extent of the law, including the seeking of criminal prosecution.

SECURITY

You are prohibited from violating, or attempting to violate the security of the Website. Any such violations may result in criminal and civil liabilities to you.  You warrant and agree that, while using the Website and the various services and features offered on or through the Website, you shall not: (a) impersonate any person or entity or misrepresent your affiliation with any other person or entity; (b) insert your own or a third party’s advertising, branding or other promotional content into any of the Website’s content, materials or services, or use, redistribute, republish or exploit such content or service for any further commercial or promotional purposes or take any action that would constitute or could be interpreted as an endorsement or sponsorship by Pipe Exchange of any third party site, content, information or other materials, or in any manner that would violate the terms and conditions of any such third party sites; (c) attempt to probe, scan, or test the vulnerability of any system or network; or (d) attempt to gain unauthorized access to data not intended for you and/or other computer systems through the Website.  You shall not: (i) engage in spidering, “screen scraping,” “database scraping,” harvesting of e-mail addresses, wireless addresses or other contact or personal information, or any other automatic means of accessing, logging-in or registering on the Website or for any services or features offered on or through the Website, or obtaining lists of users or obtaining or accessing other information or features on, from or through the Website or the services offered on or through the Website, including, without limitation, any information residing on any server or database connected to the Website or any services offered on or through the Website; (ii) obtain or attempt to obtain unauthorized access to computer systems, materials, information or any services made available on or through the Website through any means; (iii) use the Website or the services made available on or through the Website in any manner with the intent to interrupt, damage, disable, overburden, or impair the Website or such services, including, without limitation, sending mass unsolicited messages or “flooding,” “spamming,” or “crashing” any systems; (iv) use the Website or the Website’s services or features in violation of Pipe Exchange’s or any third party’s intellectual property or other proprietary or legal rights; or (v) use the Website or the Website’s services in violation of any applicable law.  You further agree that you may not attempt (or encourage or support anyone else’s attempt) to circumvent, reverse engineer, decrypt, or otherwise alter or interfere with the Website or the Website’s services, or any content thereof, or make unauthorized use thereof.  You agree that you will not use the Website in any manner that could damage, disable, overburden, or impair the Website or interfere with any other party’s use and enjoyment of the Website. You may not obtain or attempt to obtain any materials or information through any means not intentionally made publicly available or provided for through the Website. Pipe Exchange will investigate any alleged violations and will cooperate with law enforcement agencies in their investigations.

THIRD-PARTY CONTENT

Some of the information and material available through the Website are provided to Pipe Exchange by third parties (“Third-Party Material”). In some instances, the source of the Third-Party Material is identified. Third-Party Material is provided for your convenience only and Pipe Exchange does not endorse these materials or the parties who supply them to us. Pipe Exchange does not warrant or represent that these Third-Party Materials are current, accurate or reliable.

COPYRIGHT AGENT

We respect the intellectual property rights of others, and require that the people who use the Website do the same.  If you believe that your work has been copied in a way that constitutes copyright infringement, please forward the following information to Pipe Exchange’s Copyright Agent, designated as such pursuant to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, 17 U.S.C. § 512(c)(2), named below:

  • Your address, telephone number, and email address;
  • A description of the copyrighted work that you claim has been infringed;
  • A description of where the alleged infringing material is located;
  • A statement by you that you have a good faith belief that the disputed use is not authorized by the copyright owner, its agent, or the law;
  • An electronic or physical signature of the person authorized to act on behalf of the owner of the copyright interest; and
  • A statement by you, made under penalty of perjury, that the above information in your Notice is accurate and that you are the copyright owner or authorized to act on the copyright owner’s behalf.
  • For all email submissions please include the subject line: DMCA Takedown Request.

 

Pipe Exchange has adopted a policy of terminating, in appropriate circumstances, accounts of users of the services or the Website who are deemed to have repeatedly uploaded content that infringes the intellectual property rights of others.

 

Copyright Agent:

Pipe Exchange Legal

c/o Pipe Exchange LLC

14025 West Road.
Suite #100
Houston, TX 77041

Phone: + (713) 934-9480

Email: dmca@pipexch.com

DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES

THE WEBSITE AND ITS CONTENT ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE” BASIS, WITHOUT REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND WHATSOEVER. PIPE EXCHANGE, TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING THE WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY, NON-INFRINGEMENT OF THIRD PARTIES RIGHTS, AND THE WARRANTY OF FITNESS FOR PARTICULAR PURPOSE. PIPE EXCHANGE MAKES NO WARRANTIES ABOUT THE ACCURACY, RELIABILITY, COMPLETENESS, OR TIMELINESS OF THE MATERIAL, SERVICES, SOFTWARE, TEXT, GRAPHICS, AND LINKS FOUND OR CONTAINED ON THE WEBSITE. PIPE EXCHANGE DOES NOT WARRANT THAT THE WEBSITE, THE CONTENT, OR ITS SERVERS ARE FREE OF VIRUSES OR OTHER HARMFUL COMPONENTS. YOU UNDERSTAND AND AGREE THAT YOU OBTAIN MATERIAL THROUGH THE USE OF THE WEBSITE AT YOUR OWN DISCRETION AND RISK AND THAT YOU WILL BE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DAMAGES TO YOUR COMPUTER SYSTEM OR LOSS OF DATA THAT RESULTS.

ALL MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THE WEBSITE IS FOR GENERAL INFORMATION ONLY, HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED, HAS NOT BEEN RECOMMENDED BY ANY FEDERAL OR STATE REGULATORY AUTHORITY AND MAY CONTAIN ERRORS OR OMISSIONS OF MATERIAL INFORMATION. THE MATERIAL AND INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THE WEBSITE SHOULD NOT, THEREFORE, BE USED OR RELIED UPON FOR ANY SPECIFIC REASON OR APPLICATION WITHOUT INDEPENDENT COMPETENT PROFESSIONAL EXAMINATION AND VERIFICATION OF ITS ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, SUITABILITY AND APPLICABILITY. ANYONE MAKING USE OF THE MATERIAL DOES SO AT HIS/HER/ITS OWN SOLE AND EXCLUSIVE RISK AND ASSUMES ANY AND ALL ACTUAL OR POTENTIAL DAMAGE OR LIABILITY RESULTING FROM SUCH USE.

LIMITATION OF LIABILITY

IN NO EVENT SHALL PIPE EXCHANGE BE LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES WHATSOEVER (INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES, LOST PROFITS, OR DAMAGES RESULTING FROM LOST DATA OR BUSINESS INTERRUPTION) RESULTING FROM THE USE OR INABILITY TO USE MATERIAL ON THE WEBSITE OR SITES LINKED TO THE WEBSITE, WHETHER BASED ON WARRANTY, CONTRACT, TORT, OR ANY OTHER LEGAL THEORY, AND WHETHER OR NOT PIPE EXCHANGE IS ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.

TERMINATION

Pipe Exchange may terminate, change, suspend or discontinue any aspect of the Website or the Website’s services at any time.  Pipe Exchange may restrict, suspend or terminate your access to the Website and/or its services if we believe you are in breach of our terms and conditions or applicable law, or for any other reason without notice or liability.  Pipe Exchange maintains a policy that provides for the termination in appropriate circumstances of the Website use privileges of users who are repeat infringers of intellectual property rights.

USER’S REMEDY

If you are dissatisfied with any portion of the Website or with any of these Terms of Use, your sole and exclusive remedy is to discontinue using the Website.

GOVERNING LAW AND VENUE

These Terms of Use and the relationship between you and Pipe Exchange shall be governed by the laws of the United States and the State of Florida without regard to its conflict of law provisions. You hereby irrevocably submit and consent to the personal and exclusive jurisdiction of the courts located within Miami-Dade County, Florida and agree that any cause of action that may arise under these Terms of Use and all disputes arising out of or relating to the use of the Website shall be commenced and be heard in the appropriate court in Miami-Dade County, Florida. The failure of Pipe Exchange to exercise or enforce any right or provision of these Terms of Use shall not constitute a waiver of such right or provision. If any provision of these Terms of Use is found by a court of competent jurisdiction to be invalid, the parties nevertheless agree that the court should endeavor to give effect to the parties’ intentions as reflected in the provision, and the other provisions of these Terms of Use remain in full force and effect. 

QUESTIONS ABOUT TERMS OF USE

If you have any questions regarding these Terms of Use, please either:

Send an email to sales@pipexch.com

Write to Pipe Exchange at the following address:

14025 West Road

Suite 100

Houston, TX 77041